News dalla rete ITA

28 Ottobre 2021



Global demand for low-carbon hydrogen could reach as high as 530 million tonnes by mid-century under the 1.5 degree warming scenario, the firm said, with almost 150 million tonnes of that involving cargoes shipped by tanker. Imports of hydrogen by north-east Asia, Australia’s primary market for LNG exports, could account for more than half of the seaborne trade in hydrogen, or about 80 million tonnes, with Europe taking 23 million tonnes, it estimated in a report released this month. A swarm of countries are scrambling to set themselves up to snare a part of the emerging market, with Australia up against powerful competitors such as Russia, the Middle East and Canada. The last 12 months has seen a 50-fold increase in announced green hydrogen projects, primarily in the Middle East and Australia, countries with huge renewables energy resources, a proven track record of resources exports and the potential for large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS), Wood Mackenzie said. While Fortescue chairman Andrew Forrest has gone on the offensive against fossil fuel-based hydrogen backed up by CCS - so-called “blue” hydrogen - Wood Mackenzie highlighted that “green” hydrogen made using renewable energy is currently more than three times more expensive than “blue”. Still, green hydrogen costs are expected to fall as electrolyser manufacturing technology improves and renewables costs decline, supporting a longer-term pivot to from blue to green, it said, adding that the cost declines would not be uniform across markets. Wood Mackenzie vice chairman Gavin Thompson noted that most proposed hydrogen projects - such as Woodside’s proposal announced this week for Western Australia - are a combination of blue and green, allowing an exporter to establish a market position using fossil fuel-based hydrogen while expanding into renewables-based hydrogen as costs decline. The firm forecasts that the delivered cost of green hydrogen from Australia to north-east Asia could fall from a theoretical $US5-$US6 per kilogram in 2021, to about $US3/kg in 2030, and to about $US2/kg by 2050. The Middle East has a higher starting cost of $US6-$US7/kg in 2021 for delivery of green hydrogen into north-east Asia but also approaches $US2/kg by mid-century, as does South America, which starts from a lower cost base of about $US5/kg, including production, ammonia conversion and shipping costs. (ICE SYDNEY)

Fonte notizia: AFR 28/10/2021