Taking into account the recent weakness in trade numbers in April, MIDF (Malaysian Industrial Development Finance Berhad) Research on May 19 also downgraded Malaysia’s full-year growth forecast for exports to -3.4 per cent and imports to -1.9 per cent.“While China’s recovery can be a boost to international trade activity this year, we view weak global demand (particularly for manufactured goods) in addition to limited upward pressures on prices, and thus the high base would translate into slower external trade performance this year,” the research house said in a note.In fact, it expects lower commodity prices will continue to affect resource-based exports in the next few months.It also said the trade outlook could weaken further if global inflation remains high, central banks continue to tighten monetary policy and geopolitical risk deteriorates.Despite the weakness in external trade, it expects Malaysia’s economic growth will remain positive, driven by sustained growth in domestic demand in view of the positive outlook for consumer spending and the job market.The Affin Hwang Investment Bank said on May 19 that in the near term, it believes Malaysia’s external demand will remain uncertain due to lower demand from the global market.It believes that lower demand from advanced economies will continue to drag on Malaysia’s exports.However, it said higher exports to China, which is expected to account for a quarter of total exports in the region, will provide some support to intra-regional trade.It also expects global semiconductor demand to remain weak due to the imbalance in supply and demand, which will weigh on Malaysia’s overall trade performance, given the importance of the electrical and electronics (E&E) industry to the country’s total exports.“We are maintaining our projection that Malaysia’s real GDP growth will likely slow to 3.7 per cent in 2023, from 8.7 per cent in 2022,” it said. (ICE KUALA LUMPUR)

Fonte notizia: 22 Maggio 2023, Bernama