Trading partners are favoring friend-shoring countries with comparable political and economic goals. Economic development and global supply chains may slow. Indonesia, neutral, can benefit. Since 2022, friend-shoring trade has increased, with trading partners relying on alliances and blocs, according to UNCTAD. The Russia-Ukraine war, US-China trade war, and Brexit's effects shaped this trade pattern.The Ukraine crisis has increased geopolitical polarization and fragmentation, slowing trade and investment flows. Export-dependent developing nations like Indonesia will suffer. Exports will grow 12.8 percent this year in the basic scenario and negative 14.97 percent in the worst case scenario.Through friend-shoring flows, neutral Indonesia can benefit from trade and investment. Friend-shoring secures commerce and industry to countries with similar political interests. Conflicting nations including the US, China, Russia, and several EU members have diverted trade and investment from ASEAN nations like Indonesia. Indonesia can learn from China investing in downstream nickel mining and Alpan Lightning moving its factory to Indonesia during the US-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. Palm oil, crude, coal, and steel dominate Indonesia's exports. Indonesia requires investment to boost added value and exports.Link di fonte: https://www.kompas.id/baca/ekonomi/2023/06/22/arus-alih-mitra-dagang-dunia-semakin-menguat (ICE GIACARTA)

Fonte notizia: Kompas - 23 June 2023