Coles has narrowed the gap with Woolworths, but the dominant retailer is still performing better than its smaller rival, according to a major survey of consumer goods suppliers compiled by analysts at UBS. The research found 41 per cent of the 37 supermarket suppliers surveyed said Woolworths had “a better last few months” – between April and June 30 – compared with 32 per cent for Coles. That is a major improvement on the same period last year, when 70 per cent of suppliers indicated that Woolworths had performed better than Coles. But the investment bank’s retail analysts, Shaun Cousins and Jarrod Chisholm, found it was Aldi, the German discount supermarket chain, which had gained the most market share, according to suppliers, in the six months to June 30. Two-thirds of those surveyed said Aldi had “gained the most market share”, compared with 20 per cent for Woolworths. Suppliers say Aldi has had the most success in picking up market share in the last six months. Aldi’s increasing market share was reflective of “the opportunity for [the retailer] in a higher cost-of-living environment”. The sales outlook for supermarkets was “positive due to population growth, expected channel shift from out-of-home to at-home consumption and elevated food inflation, which offsets trade down risk to lower gross profit private label and share loss to Aldi”, the analysts said. The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released late last month, showed retail turnover increased by 0.7 per cent in May. But, as The Australian Financial Review reported days later, data collected by the country’s largest banks shows consumer spending falling far quicker than official figures suggest after 12 interest rate increases in 14 months. The UBS survey of suppliers found that while price and cost of good inflation expectations have moderated, they remain high. Suppliers now expect 4.8 per cent price inflation in the next 12 months, compared with the 8.7 per cent found by the same survey at this time last year. “This rate of inflation is expected by all suppliers surveyed to have an impact on volumes and (increasingly) prompt consumers to trade down to smaller pack sizes, private label and/or to Aldi,” Mr Cousins and Mr Chisholm wrote. (ICE SYDNEY)

Fonte notizia: Financial Review