Taipei, Aug. 25 (CNA) Fitch Ratings, a U.S. ratings agency, has forecast Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow to 1 percent in 2023 from 2.4 percent in 2022, largely due to weakening global demand.However, Fitch has left Taiwan's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at 'AA,' suggesting a stable outlook.In a recent statement, Fitch said Taiwan's expected slower growth in 2023 would come amid "a broad-based slump in its main technology exports, lower investment spending due to sluggish global growth, a marked post-pandemic semiconductor downcycle and intensified U.S.-led high-tech restrictions on China."The forecast showed Fitch was more cautious about Taiwan's economic fundamentals than the government and Taiwanese research institutions.Last week, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics cut its forecast of Taiwan's GDP growth to 1.61 percent from 2.04 percent. Academia Sinica, Taiwan's top research institution, cut its forecast in July from 2.41 percent to 1.56 percent.Thomas Rookmaaker, head of Fitch's Asia Pacific Sovereign Ratings, said in a news conference held on Wednesday that Taiwan's semiconductor industry, the backbone of the country's exports, would face challenges, but that the tech sector as a whole would likely improve in a cyclical recovery by the end of this year and help boost the economy.Rookmaaker said Taiwan's GDP is expected to rebound next year, with growth expected to hit 2.8 percent.Aug. 18: DGBAS cuts Taiwan's GDP growth forecast for 2023 to below 2%Aug. 8: Taiwan's exports fall for 11th straight month but decline moderatesDespite slowing economic growth in 2023, Taiwan's private consumption is expected to remain robust and serve as a key growth driver, primarily underpinned by government support measures, for example, the direct cash handouts of NT$6,000 (US$188) given to every eligible resident amounting to 0.6 percent of GDP, Fitch said.In addition, positive spillovers from increased spending following the border reopening also pushed up private consumption, Fitch added.Fitch said Taiwan's long-term foreign currency rating remaining the same was a reflection of the agency's expectation that income tax revenue would be higher than expected, which would offset the NT$414.3 billion (about 1.8 percent of GDP) invested to mitigate the cost-of-living pressures and ensure recovery in the post-COVID era.Fitch has projected gross general government debt (GGGD) in Taiwan will decline to 33.0 percent of GDP by the end of 2023, from the 33.6 percent recorded at the end of 2022. The 2023 figure will be well below the 'AA' median of 44.7 percent, according to Fitch."We believe medium-term fiscal discipline is anchored by Taiwan's adherence to prudent fiscal management in keeping public debt well below the 50 percent of GDP ceiling, as enshrined in the Public Debt Act," Fitch said in the statement.Aug. 21: NT$115 billion allocated to pay off national debt in 2024 budget planAlso speaking at the news conference, Sophia Chen (陳怡如), director of Fitch Taiwan's Financial Institutions, said because of a weaker economy in the first half of the year, the growth rate that Taiwanese banks issued loans slowed. She added that as of the end of June, lending only rose 1 percent from the end of December, with loans to corporate and consumer clients and home mortgages all on the decline.Chen said it is possible that bank loans will grow 3-4 percent during 2023 and that the banking industry's momentum is unlikely to bounce back until the fourth quarter of this year or early next year.Chen added that the financial woes suffered by China's property sector were unlikely to have an adverse impact on Taiwan's banking system because only a small fraction of Taiwanese banks have exposure to Chinese property developers.She said Taiwanese banks did provide loans to Taiwanese investors in China, but tended to be cautious about Chinese property developers.(By Su Ssu-yun, Chang Ai and Frances Huang)Enditem/kb (ICE TAIPEI)

Fonte notizia: Organi di Stampa - Focus Taiwan News Channel