Malaysia's industrial production will likely bounce back this year after growing a meagre 0.9 per cent in 2023, bogged down by a slump in the manufacturing sector in the last few months. The 0.9 per cent was a tad lower than the forecast by some analysts of 1.0 per cent growth and a bigger fall from 6.7 per cent expansion in 2022. Analysts said the potential rebound in 2024 will be fueled by the expected stronger global manufacturing activity in the upcoming months. The manufacturing index, a key component of the Industrial Production Index (IPI), moderated sharply to 0.7 per cent last year versus 8.2 per cent in 2022, but MIDF Research believes it will expand 4.6 per cent in 2024 on anticipation of a robust recovery in the second half. "The subdued (overall production) performance (last year) was attributed to muted manufacturing, particularly in the export-oriented sub-sector. "However, the slowdown was partially offset by an expansion in mining and electricity sectors," the firm said. Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) said the support for industrial production will probably come about gradually. After contracting for 16 straight months, the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.0 in January from 49.0 in December, a level consistent with no change in operating conditions, offering signs that the manufacturing slump may have bottomed out. Buoyed by the optimistic outlook especially for the manufacturing sector, HLIB kept Malaysia's 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 4.8 per cent compared to an estimated 3.8 per cent in 2023. In December 2023, the IPI growth declined to 0.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from 0.6 per cent in November, faring worse than consensus expectations of 0.6 per cent YoY. This decline was mainly due to a sharper decrease in manufacturing production, dropping by 1.4 per cent YoY compared to a 0.1 per cent YoY decrease in November. However, there was an increase in both mining production, up by 3.6 per cent YoY compared to 1.9 per cent YoY in November, and electricity production, rising by 4.6 per cent YoY compared to 4.3 per cent YoY in November. On a monthly seasonally adjusted basis, the IPI experienced a sharper decline, dropping by 2.6 per cent compared to a 0.2 per cent decrease in November. This decline was driven by decreases in manufacturing, down by 3.2 per cent compared to a 1.0 per cent increase in November, and electricity production, which decreased by 0.8 per cent compared to a 1.1 per cent decrease in November. Manufacturing production declined more rapidly, falling by 1.4 per cent YoY, compared to a 0.1 per cent YoY decrease in November, attributed to a sharper contraction in the export-oriented sector and a slowdown in the domestic-oriented sector. Meanwhile, domestic-oriented production showed a moderation in growth, increasing by 4.2 per cent YoY, compared to 6.2 per cent YoY growth in November. This slowdown was observed across sectors such as 'food, beverages, and tobacco', which grew by 5.7 per cent YoY compared to 8.9 per cent YoY in November, and "non-metallic mineral products, basic, and fabricated metal products", which grew by 6.0 per cent YoY compared to 7.0 per cent YoY in November. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the IPI saw a rebound, increasing 1.0 per cent YoY, compared to a slight decrease of 0.05 per cent YoY in 3Q23. This rebound was driven by stronger performances in mining, which grew by 4.3 per cent YoY compared to a 0.4 per cent YoY decrease in the third quarter, and electricity production, which grew by 4.9 per cent YoY compared to a 1.9 per cent YoY increase in the third quarter. However, this growth was offset by a continued decline in manufacturing production, which decreased by 0.2 per cent YoY compared to a 0.1 per cent YoY decrease in the third quarter. (ICE KUALA LUMPUR)

Fonte notizia: 23 febbraio 2024, Kuala Lumpur