Kazakhstan's National Bank cuts base rate to 14.75% as predictedThe National Bank's Monetary Policy Committee announced a reduction in the base rate to 14.75% per annum, with an interest rate band of ±1 p.p, according to the regulator's press service on Friday."Annual inflation continued to decline in January, with inflation expectations slowing for three consecutive months. Monthly inflation remains above historical averages. The external inflationary environment remains neutral, although inflation in some trading partner countries has slightly accelerated, contributing to external inflationary pressures. The ongoing decline in global food prices is exerting a positive influence on the external inflation backdrop. Domestically, inflationary pressures persist due to stable domestic demand and unanchored inflation expectations,"  the report says.Kazakhstan's National Bank cuts base rate to 14.75% as expected (Part2) The National Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has lowered the base rate to 14.75% per annum, with an interest rate band of ±1 p.p, according to the regulator's press service on Friday."Annual inflation continued to decline in January, with inflation expectations slowing for three consecutive months. Monthly inflation remains above historical averages. The external inflationary environment remains neutral. (…) In the current conditions, there's little room for monetary policy easing," the report says.The National Bank notes that inflation is picking up in some trading partner countries, adding to external inflation pressures. However, falling global food prices are helping offset this."Inflationary pressure remains within the domestic economy due to stable demand and uncertain inflation expectations. The current balance of inflation factors, alongside the monthly rate dynamics and uncertainty regarding fiscal policy parameters, indicates a high likelihood of maintaining the base rate at its current level in future decisions. It's essential to accumulate data and monitor the implementation of economic and fiscal reforms,” the regulator said.As anticipated, inflation eased to 9.5% in January, attributed to continued monetary policy measures, reduced global inflationary pressures and production costs, gradual supply chain recovery, government interventions, and the lingering impact of last year's high base effect.“Decreasing inflation expectations in January contributed to the decision to lower the base rate. This trend has continued for three months in a row," the National Bank said.The regulator anticipates Brent oil prices to stabilize at $80 until the end of 2025, followed by a decline to $77 in 2026. Inflation forecasts remain at 7.5-9.5% for 2024, 5.5-7.5% for 2025, and 5-6% for 2026. Economic growth projections for Kazakhstan have been raised to 3.5-4.5% for 2024 and maintained at 5.5-6.5% for 2025.The National Bank is dedicated to reaching a 5% inflation target in the medium term, requiring a moderately tight monetary policy for an extended period.Previously, the rate remained at 16.75% since December 2022. Before that, the regulator lowered the rate four times, from 16.75% in July 2023 to 15.25% in January 2024.The next scheduled decision on the base rate will be announced on April 12, 2024. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: Interfax