Analysts predict Kazakhstan’s GDP to reach 3.7-5.1% in January-FebruaryAnalysts surveyed by the Interfax-Kazakhstan agency suggest that the economy of Kazakhstan may grow by 3.7-5.1% in January-February 2024.Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at the Financial Group Finam, anticipates a GDP growth of 3.7-3.9% over the next two months."As part of the OPEC+ deals, Kazakhstan agreed last November to reduce oil production by an extra 82,000 barrels per day until March 2024, on top of the previously announced reduction of 78,000 barrels per day, which lasts until December 2024. Although production exceeded the January quota, the Energy Ministry assured that Kazakhstan will make up for the excess over the next four months and honor its commitments made at the 35th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in June 2023, as well as any other voluntary agreements,” she said.The analyst predicts a decrease in oil production in February, which could restrain GDP growth in January-February. According to her forecasts, by the end of the first two months of 2024, GDP growth could range from 3.7% to 3.9%.Freedom Finance Global anticipates a GDP growth rate of 4.2% for the forecast period. Therefore, company analyst Daniyar Orazbayev suggests that comparable oil prices to last year, coupled with a slight increase in February compared to January, are likely to support an increase in the gross domestic product growth rate."In addition, economic sectors such as transport and communications showed an acceleration in development pace in January, and construction continues to exhibit double-digit growth rates. Furthermore, we expect the trade sector to experience a slight rebound in February, contributing to accelerated GDP growth,” the analyst said.Zhannur Ashigali, Deputy Director of the ACRA Group of Sovereign and Regional Ratings, expects Kazakhstan's real GDP growth to be around 4.8-5.1% year-on-year, driven by trade, industry, and construction."The initial evaluation for January showed weak numbers, which is surprising considering the overall economic trend, even though short-term economic indicators increased by 4.3%. This figure may likely be revised higher later due to activity that didn't happen in January-February," commented Ashigali.Experts from the analytical center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) expect the Kazakhstan economy's growth in the first two months to exceed January's 3.9%, although they haven't provided an exact figure."Due to the usual decrease in business activity in January, we anticipate growth rates to improve by the end of February. However, this improvement might be limited by the current lower OPEC oil production quotas and the volatility of oil prices,” AFK said.The experts also note different economic growth predictions for 2024: 5.3% according to the current socio-economic development forecast, 4.3% based on the AFK's February survey of financial market experts, and 3.4% according to the latest World Bank forecasts.There's a growing uncertainty in Kazakhstan's economic growth forecasts for this year. In February, following a change in the government of Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev set a new target of achieving an average annual economic growth of at least 6% by the end of 2024.The growth of the Kazakhstan economy at the end of 2023 was 5.1%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX