Inflation in Kazakhstan expected to ease to 8.9-9.5% by end of February - analystsInflation in Kazakhstan at the end of February 2024 may slow down to 8.9-9.5%, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Freedom Finance Global anticipates February's annual inflation to reach 8.9%. Company analyst Daniyar Orazbayev attributed this decrease mainly to last year's high base, which saw a monthly inflation of 1.3% in February.“We expect a decrease to 0.7%, supported by a slight increase in prices (+0.2%) for essential food items in February 2024. Last year, these goods rose by as much as 1% during the same period,” the analyst said.According to forecasts by Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam Financial Group, inflation in February may ease to 9.3% annually and 0.7-0.8% monthly."Although a decline in annual inflation over the past year (from 20%-21% in January-February 2023) looks impressive, much of this can be attributed to the diminishing high base effect," Belenkaya said.Belenkaya referred to National Bank data showing a gradual inflation slowdown over the coming years, although it's expected to stay above the target. Last Friday, the National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its inflation forecast for this year at 7.5-9.5% and for 2025 at 5.5-7.5%.The Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) predicts inflation within the range of 9-9.4%.“Current price increases in Kazakhstan are mainly influenced by internal factors, with the external situation having a neutral impact on inflation. Oil prices remain volatile not showing a consistent increase, and global food prices are going down steadily. Meanwhile, central banks in developed countries are sticking to strict money policies, which is slowly slowing down inflation worldwide,” the AFK said.Regarding internal factors, the AFK emphasizes strong consumer demand within the country, backed by fiscal measures. If the National Bank lowers the base interest rate, it could also spur increased business activity and lending."To summarize, a notable decrease in inflation by the end of February is unlikely, with the projected range staying at 9-9.4%. Looking ahead, the AFK survey indicates that financial market experts foresee a gradual decline in inflation to 8.8% by February 2025, assuming a base rate of 12.5%,” according to AFK experts.According to Zhannur Ashigali, deputy director of the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings, inflation in February compared to the same period last year could range from 9-9.5%, in line with a gradual cooling trend in inflation."This trend is influenced by both the regulator's monetary policy and the diminishing impact of world food prices. Additionally, there's a stabilizing effect on inflation expectations within the economy, along with the statistical impact of the high base from the beginning of last year. In December 2023, Kazakhstan's year-on-year consumer price index rose to 9.8%, indicating a move towards single-digit inflation," Ashigali said.In January, inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 0.8%, while on an annual basis, it was 9.5%. In 2023, inflation in Kazakhstan was recorded at 9.8%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX