Inflation in Kazakhstan may slow down to 8.4-8.9% by the end of May, analysts sayBy the end of May 2024, inflation in Kazakhstan is projected to slow to between 8.4% and 8.9%, according to analysts surveyed by the Interfax-Kazakhstan agency.Zhannur Ashigali, Deputy Director of the ACRA Group of Sovereign and Regional Ratings, forecasts that annual consumer inflation could reach around 8.5% per annum by the end of May. "This trend is attributed to the monetary policy implemented by the regulator, a reduction in the impact of global food prices, the stabilization of inflation expectations in the economy, and the statistical effect of a high base from early last year," she said.Murad Kastaev, CEO of DAMU Capital Management, expects further deceleration of inflation in Kazakhstan, but at a slower pace, reaching 8.5-8.6%. He explained that "the high base effect from last year is diminishing, and the balance of pro-inflationary and disinflationary factors is shifting towards the former. Consequently, there is a risk that inflation will plateau at its current level for several months before possibly shifting in either direction by autumn," he said.A similar forecast was made by Freedom Finance Global, predicting that annual inflation by the end of May will be 8.6%. Analyst Daniyar Orazbayev commented that "socially significant food products decreased in price by 0.1% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 0.7% increase in the same period in 2023. This suggests that food price growth in May will again be minimal. However, there will be no significant reduction in the growth rate of prices for paid services. For non-food products, the primary scenario also anticipates maintaining the current pace of price growth. Consequently, they estimate that monthly inflation will reach 0.5%, which will minimally reduce annual inflation due to the low base effect from last year."Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam, forecasts that monthly inflation in May may reach 0.6%, and annual inflation will stabilize around April's level of 8.7%. She explained that "as the high base from early last year is phased out of inflation calculations and current monthly inflation rates stabilize at still elevated levels, the decline in annual inflation is expected to slow down."Jusan Analytics forecasts that the reduction in price pressure will slow significantly. Analyst Elena Ten explained that this reduction will mainly be driven by the seasonal decrease in fruit and vegetable prices and the restrained price dynamics of imported goods due to the strengthened tenge. However, despite the easing inflationary environment, the company’s inflation risk assessments have worsened."Significant inflationary potential arises from natural disasters domestically and globally, leading to food shortages, pricing dynamics in the utilities market, and increased fiscal stimuli causing excessive growth in domestic consumer demand. Additionally, the worsening of price expectations after nearly six months of decline, combined with high retail credit activity despite high interest rates, also increases inflationary pressures," Ten said.Jusan Analytics predicts that monthly inflation in May will range from 0.5% to 0.7%, resulting in annual inflation at 8.7%-8.8%.The Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) forecasts that inflation by the end of May will be between 8.4% and 8.9%. They attribute this to the start of the fruit and vegetable season, reduced import inflation due to a significant slowdown in import growth (-10.6% in the first quarter), and a stronger national currency (up 2.9% since the beginning of the year), as well as government measures to slow price growth and the National Bank's moderately tight monetary policy. They expect monthly consumer price index changes of 0.5%-0.7%, leading to annual inflation in the 8.4%-8.9% range.Inflation in Kazakhstan was 0.6% in April, with an annual rate of 8.7%. In 2023, the annual inflation rate was 9.8%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX