Analysts anticipate Kazakhstan's GDP growth in January-June to range from 3.5 to 4.4%The economy of Kazakhstan is expected to grow by 3.5-4.4%, in January-June 2024, according to analysts surveyed by the Interfax-Kazakhstan agency.According to the forecast of Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department of the Financial Group Finam, GDP growth in January-June may amount to 3.5%-3.6%."According to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the short-term economic indicator of the republic for January-May this year increased by 3.7% y/y versus 3.9% y/y in January-April. The dynamics of the indicator have been consistently slowing down since February,” Belenkaya commented.Economic activity may have been negatively impacted by devastating spring floods, she said. “Also the volume of investment in fixed capital dropped by 6.5% y/y,” Belenkaya emphasized.As Jusan Analytics analyst Klara Seydakhmetova noted, data on the growth of the short-term economic indicator (STEI) continue to signal a slowdown in the economy.According to the results of the new forecast of Jusan Analytics, further economic development will be in the positive zone.“We expect that the results of the first half of the year will show economic growth (…)  in the range of 3.5-3.6%. The economy this year will be positively influenced by government measures to restore flood-affected regions, plans to develop real estate sector and infrastructure repair, including those implemented through budget expenditures, as well as moderate global demand for energy resources, supporting oil prices above $80 per barrel,” Seidakhmetova commented.According to her, a negative impact on the economy could come from the mining and agricultural sectors, which will be more likely to manifest itself in the second half of the year due to stagnant oil production and lower yields due to flood damage in certain regions.Deputy Director of the ACRA Group of Sovereign and Regional Ratings Zhannur Ashigali expects GDP growth for the first half of the year to be in the range of 4-4.5%.“The economy of Kazakhstan in real terms continues to grow within 4-5% per year. This is due to both activity in industry (mainly in mining areas) and in the services sector. Based on the results of the first half of the year, we expect growth in real terms within 4 -4.4% y/y, slightly lowering our earlier expectations based on the deteriorating situation in capital investments and mining industries,” Ashigali said.At the same time, according to him, the current drivers of economic growth are transport, telecoms and construction.The Ministry of Economy of Kazakhstan has not yet provided GDP data for January-April and January-May 2024.As reported, in 2023, GDP grew by 5.1%.Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov sets the goal of achieving 6% GDP growth by the end of 2024. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX