Hong Kong maintains growth forecast for 2024 as economy expands 3.3% in second quarter The Hong Kong government has expressed confidence the city will meet its economic forecast for 2024 as a whole, following moderate growth of 3.3 per cent year on year in the second quarter. The Census and Statistics Department revealed on Friday the second-quarter figure was in line with its advance estimate, having increased by 2.8 per cent year on year in the first three months. The government said it would maintain its full-year growth forecast of between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent. Government economist Adolf Leung Wing-sing said the economy should continue to grow for the remainder of the year, but faced challenges such as geopolitical tensions as well as global economic and interest rates certainties. To meet the full-year forecast, he said, growth in the latter half of the year had to be between 2 per cent and 4 per cent. “Exports of goods should sustain a positive performance if external demand holds up, though trade conflicts will present risks,” he said. “Continued local economic expansion should lend support to fixed asset investment, but geopolitical tensions and interest rate uncertainties may dampen business confidence and asset markets.” Leung said Beijing’s decision to allow more mainland Chinese residents to visit Hong Kong on a solo basis without having to join tour groups would boost market sentiment. “But the changes in the consumption patterns of visitors and residents and the relatively strong Hong Kong dollar may continue to pose challenges,” he said. Total exports of goods increased by 7.6 per cent from a year earlier, after growing by 6.8 per cent in the first quarter, while imports rose by 3.4 per cent. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to accelerate between 2025 and 2028 at an average of 3.2 per cent along with the global economic recovery and the city’s greater integration with the mainland. Some experts had earlier raised concerns about economic conditions in the city and the pressure the business sector was facing as more significant than the headline figures suggested. On Wednesday, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po urged banks to ease the liquidity pressure faced by small and medium-sized businesses and help homeowners with their mortgage obligations. He also promised that authorities would provide help for cases that proved difficult. Amid a growing trend of people crossing the border for leisure and shopping, retail sales in June declined 9.7 per cent from a year ago, the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. More tourists are arriving in Hong Kong, but many of them do not spend as much as visitors did in the past. Hong Kong welcomed more than 25 million visitors between January and July, a 52 per cent increase on the same period last year. Of the total, 77 per cent, or about 19.3 million, were from mainland China. The number of mainland visitors in the first seven months rose 47.3 per cent year on year. Simon Lee Siu-po, an honorary fellow at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Asia-Pacific Institute of Business, said on Friday that he expected the annual growth rate to be 2 to 3 per cent, attributing the 3.3 per cent expansion in the second quarter to the low base last year, with GDP at less than HK$700 billion. “The other three quarters were all higher than HK$700 billion last year. For the third and fourth quarters this year, I am not as optimistic because of the higher base of comparison,” he said. Lee added that consumption was still weak and the main drivers of the growth came from exports with a small portion from capital expenditure. Economist Billy Mak Sui-choi, associate professor at Baptist University’s department of accountancy, economics and finance, said the government’s full-year forecast was realistic, given growth was stronger in the second quarter than the first. He added that while tourist numbers were recovering, the effects could be tempered by a lower average spending per head, contributing to more moderate growth of Hong Kong’s economy. Mak said it was too early to comment on the effects of a potential US interest rate cut, as it would depend on when it took place and the extent. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3274772/hong-kong-maintains-growth-forecast-2024-economy-grows-33-second-quarter (ICE HONG KONG)

Fonte notizia: South China Morning Post