National Bank of Kazakhstan raises its base rate to 15.25% pa (Part2)(expanded version, 4-7 paragraphs added)The Committee on Monetary and Credit Policy of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to raise the base rate to 15.25% per annum, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, according to the regulator's press service."This decision was based on updated forecasts and an assessment of inflation risks. (...) Overall, monetary conditions have eased due to a weakened exchange rate, lower real interest rates driven by rising inflation, and higher inflation projections for the coming years. Additionally, increased volatility in financial markets made it necessary to raise the base rate," the National Bank stated.The central bank further explained that, given the volatility in financial and energy markets, it will closely monitor the need for further tightening of monetary policy to bring inflation back on a path of steady reduction and achieve the target of 5%.The National Bank of Kazakhstan's decision to raise the rate to 15.25% diverged from the consensus forecast of most analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank has been easing monetary policy, lowering the base rate three times: by 50 basis points in February to 14.75%, by 25 basis points in June to 14.50%, and by 25 basis points in July to 14.25%. In August and October, the base rate was held steady at 14.25%.The National Bank of Kazakhstan has clarified that annual inflation reached 8.5% in October, driven by significant price hikes in regulated services due to the implementation of the "Tariff for Investment" program and the weakening of the tenge."Inflation accelerated as prices for non-food goods and market services rose amid strong domestic demand. Inflationary pressure persists due to ongoing fiscal stimulus, driven by unmet budget revenue targets. Although inflation expectations among the population decreased in October, they remain volatile," the National Bank noted.The central bank also pointed to growing external inflationary pressures, driven by rising global food prices observed in recent months, along with higher inflation and significant currency fluctuations in Russia."In the baseline scenario, the price of Brent crude oil has been revised downward to an average of $70 per barrel for the remainder of the forecast period. This adjustment reflects current price trends, reduced demand from China, a slowdown in the global economy, and increased production in North and South America," the release states.The National Bank's decision to raise the base rate to 15.25% diverged from the consensus forecast of most analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan, who had expected the base rate to remain at 14.25%.Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank has been easing monetary policy, lowering the base rate three times: by 50 basis points in February to 14.75%, by 25 basis points in June to 14.50%, and by 25 basis points in July to 14.25%. In August and October, the base rate was held steady at 14.25%.The next decision on the base rate will be announced on January 17, 2025, at 12:00 Astana time. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX