EDB revises Kazakhstan’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan in 2024 to 4.5%, down from the 5% projected in June 2024, according to the bank’s December macroeconomic review.The report attributes the revision to an expected slowdown in industrial growth during the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to reduced oil production caused by scheduled maintenance at the Kashagan oilfield and Kazakhstan’s commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. However, state-led initiatives such as "Comfortable School," "Tariff in Exchange for Investments," and "Affordable Internet," combined with increased manufacturing investment, are expected to offset these challenges and stabilize growth at 4.5%.2025-2027 Growth ProjectionsThe EDB maintains its forecast of 5.5% annual GDP growth for 2025-2027, driven by strategic infrastructure and social projects, as well as regional development programs. The bank anticipates benefits from a new investment cycle targeting $150 billion in foreign direct investment by 2029, which is expected to strengthen non-resource sectors, particularly manufacturing.Oil and grain exports are also projected to play a key role in supporting economic growth."In the second half of the year, oil production and exports are expected to increase with the launch of new capacities at the Tengiz oilfield, potentially adding 0.4–0.6 percentage points to GDP growth," EDB analysts noted.Inflation OutlookThe EDB revised its inflation forecast upward, now predicting 8.5% by the end of 2024 (up from 8.3%). Inflation is expected to decrease gradually, reaching 7.3% in 2025, 5.6% in 2026, and 5.1% in 2027."These adjustments reflect a sharper-than-anticipated depreciation of the tenge and higher utility tariffs, projected to rise by 10-15% in 2025. Lending activity is also expected to sustain domestic demand, slowing the pace of inflation reduction," the report noted.To manage inflation, the EDB forecasts that the National Bank of Kazakhstan will keep its base rate above 15% until April 2025. Gradual reductions are expected as inflation stabilizes, with the rate forecasted to decline to 11.25% by the end of 2025 and to a neutral level of 8% by 2027.Currency and Trade ProjectionsThe tenge is projected to experience moderate depreciation in the medium term, averaging 486 KZT/USD in 2025. A high base rate and elevated transfers from the National Fund, estimated at 5.25 trillion KZT in 2025, are expected to provide support for the currency. Additional foreign exchange supply will come from resumed grain exports, increased oil revenues, and the reinstatement of a 50% mandatory foreign currency repatriation requirement for quasi-state entities.However, rising imports and external debt servicing payments are identified as potential factors for weakening the tenge.Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 5.1% in 2023. Despite the EDB’s revised forecast, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov remains optimistic about achieving 6% GDP growth by the end of 2024. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX