Kazakhstan’s inflation expected to rise to 8.5%-8.7% in December—analystsKazakhstan’s annual inflation rate is projected to increase to 8.5%-8.7% in December, up from 8.4% in November, according to a survey conducted by Interfax-Kazakhstan. Monthly inflation is expected to slow to 0.7%-0.8% or remain at 0.9%, though some experts believe it could rise to 1%.Economists point to both internal and external factors driving inflationary pressures. Murat Kastayev, CEO of DAMU Capital Management, forecasts annual inflation at 8.5%, with monthly growth slowing to 0.7%-0.8%. He attributes "the rise in inflation to fiscal deficits and increased government spending toward the end of the year, a weaker tenge and a stronger U.S. dollar in November and December, which raised import costs, and imported inflation from Russia along with higher prices on Russian goods." Kastayev also highlighted pre-holiday consumer spending, which boosted retail sales, as a contributing factor.Daniyar Orazbayev, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, predicts inflation could reach 8.6% annually and 1% monthly, driven mainly by rising food prices. "In just 24 days of December, prices for staple food items increased by 0.5%, compared to no change during the same period last year," he said. Orazbayev added that seasonal food price increases and currency depreciation are likely to further push up prices for non-food items.Zarina Skripchenko, chief analyst at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), expects inflation to reach 8.7% in December, with monthly price growth holding steady at 0.9%, the same as in November. She emphasized structural challenges, "including continued fiscal stimulus, rising tariffs, strong domestic demand, elevated inflation expectations—which rose from 12.5% to 14.1% in November—and the recent depreciation of the tenge." Skripchenko also pointed out that "the largest contributors to inflation continue to be rising service costs, particularly for utilities, transport, and communications."External factors are also influencing Kazakhstan’s inflation outlook. Russia’s inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, up from 8.5% in October, while China’s inflation slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.3% in October. Inflation in the EU eased slightly to 2.2%, compared to 2.3% in October. "Meanwhile, oil prices stabilized at 72.57 dollars per barrel in December, though global food prices remained high. Skripchenko noted that the FAO food price index increased by 5.7% year-on-year in November, reaching its highest level since April 2023 at 127.5 points," she said.Kazakhstan’s National Bank raised its base interest rate to 15.25% in November to counter inflation risks. National Bank Chair Timur Suleimenov stated that "the main risks to inflation forecasts stem from internal demand pressures, rising regulated prices, and growing external uncertainties." According to estimates, monthly inflation in December may reach 0.9%, while the annual rate is expected to hit 8.7%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX