YEAR IN REVIEW: Great expectations of Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2024 have never come trueThe year 2024 has become a year of bitterest disappointments, unfulfilled hopes and ordeals for the economic block of Kazakhstan’s government.The problems that the cabinet of Olzhas Bektenov inherited from the previous government, including unstable prices for the country's main export goods, failure to meet the oil output target and the need to pay accrued VAT compensations for the previous year, have placed a heavy burden on the government’s budget, which lost several trillion tenge in 2024.Furthermore, the republic’s GDP growth is unlikely to meet the expectations this year.GDP 2024: POINT-OF-VIEW VERSUS REALITYIn 2023, Kazakhstan demonstrated a 5.1% growth in GDP, expecting a 5.3% increase in the economy in 2024. In February, the prime minister of the government was replaced: Olzhas Bektenov, a well-known anti-corruption fighter in the country, stepped in to lead the Cabinet instead of Alikhan Smailov. After taking up the post, Bektenov raised the GDP growth outlook to 6%.The then minister of national economy, Nurlan Baibazarov, who was dismissed at the end of this year, pledged that it was quite realistic to achieve the GDP growth target of 6%."The main drivers that can support GDP growth are the manufacturing industry, construction, transport and agriculture. (...) The ministry will take every effort to stimulate economic growth,” Baibazarov said back in February.However, it is quite obvious at the moment that Kazakhstan won’t be able to reach either the 6% or the 5.3% target. When briefing President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on the social and economic performance in January-November of this year, Prime Minister Bektenov said that the economy only increased by 4.4% in the eleven months. The main reason for slow economic growth in the republic was the fact that oil production was below the target, according to the prime minister.This year the Ministry of Energy revised the oil output plans a number of times. Initially, the republic was to produce 90.3 million tonnes of oil. However, because of repair works in the largest oil fields and due to Kazakhstan’s commitment under OPEC+ agreement the oil production target was then revised downward to 88.4 million tonnes to be later further lowered to 87.8 million tonnes.The Ministry of National Economy, which is responsible for economic performance of the republic, avoids to talk about GDP outlooks. However, the National Bank of Kazakhstan expects GDP to increase by 4.5% and the World Bank by 3.4% in the twelve months of 2024. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX