A new Consumer and retail Outlook report has been issued by Fitch Solutions for Lebanon, including 5-yearforecasts up to 2029.  Fitch Solutions holds an improved outlook for the Lebanese consumer over 2025, as an earlier-than-expected ceasefire will support consumer confidence and normalization of household budgets compared to 2024. This view will be compounded by declines in the high rates of inflation and resumption of wider economic activity in key sectors.  Household spending in Lebanon over 2025 will show a sharp recovery as the economy rebuilds itself following the conflict, as well as the wider one across the Levant. Over 2025, they forecast real household spending, measured at 2010 prices, to total LP41.4trn, showing a growth rate of 4.1% over the year which will largely be the result of low base effects from static real growth recorded in 2024. We also note that real spending total is approximately 30% lower than what it was in 2019, before both the economic crisis in the market as well as the impact of the pandemic. This highlights the precarious state of the Lebanese consumer in general compared to 2019, in which real spending reached LP57.7trn.  Their forecast for growth in consumer spending in 2025 is in line with their Country Risk team’s forecast that the Lebanese economy will grow by 6.0% y-o-y in 2025 due to base effects, following a severe contraction of 18% y-o-y in 2024. This is an upward revision from 4% growth y-o-y prompted by an earlier-than-expected ceasefire . On January 9 2025, the Lebanese Parliament elected army commander Joseph Aoun as President, pointing towards improving security and domestic political conditions which will also bringforward the normalization of activity, leading to improving domestic demand and stronger growth over 2025 in sectors such as business services, tourism, transport, hospitality, construction and agriculture. The resumption of economic activity, along with the decline in inflation from 45.3% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2025, will improve households’ purchasing power, driving growth in consumer spending once more. (ICE BEIRUT)

Fonte notizia: Bank Audi, Lebanon Weekly Monitor, 17 - 23 Feb 2025