A new Pharmaceuticals report has been issued by Fitch Solutions for Lebanon, including 10-year forecasts.  In 2024, Lebanon's pharmaceutical sales represented 2.6% of GDP and 38.8% of healthcare expenditure. They forecast that pharmaceutical sales will increase from LP 75.2trn (US$ 0.8bn) in 2024 to LP 76.4 trn (US$ 0.8bn) in 2025, which represents growth of around +1.6% y-o-y in local currency terms and +3.2% in US dollar terms. These results continue to be fueled by the rising inflationary pressures and further weakness in the Lebanese pound, which is increasing pressure on pharmaceuticals and other essential goods across the board. By 2029, they expect that total pharmaceutical sales will reach LP85.9 trn (USD1.0bn), equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% in local currency terms and 4.7% in US dollar terms.  They project that per capita pharmaceutical spending will increase from around US$ 146 in 2024 to around US$ 201 by 2029. While the market will experience rising demand for the pharmaceuticals, this increase is significantly influenced by inflated drug prices, which continues to impact Lebanon's pharmaceutical market. Ongoing devaluation of the Lebanese pound to the US dollar, in combination with a deteriorating economic situation, has led to a significant rise in drug prices. The situation is further exacerbated by Lebanon's high reliance on imports for pharmaceutical products and its severely reduced healthcare budget. By 2034, they forecast that total expenditure on pharmaceuticals, including prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, will increase to LP 97.6 trn (US$ 1.1bn). This equates to a CAGR of 2.6% in local currency and 3.7% in US dollar terms.  In 2024, they estimate that Lebanon's pharmaceutical market has an import reliance of over 80%. The market's geographical proximity to war-ridden Syria will continue to have a negative impact on pharmaceutical trade relations with key drugmakers in Israel and Jordan. It will also slow pharmaceutical imports over the medium term and, thereby, reduce the growth rate of the medicines market.  Other than the cultural prioritization of healthcare in the market, they highlight four major reasons why Lebanon's expenditure on healthcare and pharmaceutical sales is high when compared with other markets: • The private sector accounts for about 90% of Lebanon's hospitals and pharmacies. This will drive the prescription of high-value pharmaceuticals, as fixed markups on drugs often promote irrational prescription patterns.  • The lack of consolidation among Lebanon's 50-plus pharmaceutical importers, combined with fixed markups that remove the possibility of competitive pricing, has kept drug prices high and reduced distributor competitiveness and economies of scale.  • Medical tourism now forms a large part of Lebanon's economy, although exact figures regarding its value are difficult to obtain.  However, large amounts of this foreign capital distort the overall market size.  • The market remains almost completely reliant on imported pharmaceuticals in value term (ICE BEIRUT)

Fonte notizia: Bank Audi, Lebanon Weekly Monitor, 24 Feb - 2 March 2025