Kazakh National Bank widens inflation outlooks for 2025 and 2026The National Bank of Kazakhstan has widened the inflation outlook for 2025 to 10-12% for 2025 and for 2026 to 9-11%, the financial regulator said in a press release."The inflation forecast for the coming years has been widened taking into account new factors. The inflation is expected to come in at 10%-12% in 2025 and at 9%-11% in 2026. By the end of 2027, the inflation is anticipated to decrease to 5.5%-7.5% as a result of a restrictive monetary policy and a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the course of the expected tax reforms," the press release says.A wider forecast for inflation in 2025-2027 is due to an expected increase in external inflationary pressure, higher prices for fuel and petroleum products, a rise in the value-added tax (VAT) rate, and the ongoing reforms in the housing and utility sector, the National Bank said."The main risks include an increasing pressure from the domestic demand, acceleration of inflation in Russia and unanchored inflation expectations,” the press release says.In November last year, the National Bank forecasted that in the baseline scenario the consumer price index (CPI) would be between 6.5% and 8.5% in 2025 and between 5.5% and 7.5% in 2026.“The inflation forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 6.5-8.5%, and for 2026 to 5.5-7.5%. However, the core inflation is expected to stabilize near 5% by 2026, with total inflation expected to align with the target by 2027," the National Bank said in its November report.In the worst-case scenario, the CPI will range between 6.5% and 8.5% in 2025 and between 5.5% and 7.5% in 2026; in the best-case scenario it will be between 6% and 8% in 2025 and between 5% and 7% in 2026, according to the November report.It is the National Bank’s target to stabilize the inflation at around 5% in the midterm.Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said in February of this year that inflation might rise to 12%-14% by late 2025 or early 2026. However, recent data indicates a more moderate increase. In February 2025, annual inflation reached 9.4%, up slightly from 8.9% in January. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX