The World Bank finalized and published its definitive report on the damages and losses suffered by Lebanon due to the conflict, which took place from Oct. 8, 2023, to the truce on Nov. 27, 2024.  The report, conducted in cooperation with the governments of Nawaf Salam and Najib Mikati, estimated the cost of recovery and reconstruction at $11 billion in the "short and medium term," slightly less than the $12 billion that was discussed at the same meeting. The World Bank broke down this amount as follows: $8.4 billion in "immediate" needs for the period 2025-2027 and an additional $2.6 billion in the "medium term," between 2028 and 2030.  The World Bank assessed the total damage costs at $6.8 billion in regions affected , with economic losses amounting to $7.2 billion. These estimates cover the period from Oct. 8, 2023, the date when hostilities between the two belligerents began, to Dec. 20, 2024.  This total of $14 billion was already leaked a few weeks ago during a meeting organized at the Grand Serail on this matter with a World Bank delegation. In terms of methodology, losses are calculated over 26 months, including 14 months of conflict and the first year of recovery.  South Lebanon and Nabatieh governorates were the hardest hit, followed by Mount Lebanon, according to the report. The Nabatieh governorate recorded $3.2 billion in damage (47 percent of the total), $2.0 billion in losses (28 percent of the total), and $4.7 billion in needs (43 percent of the total). As for the South Governorate, it accounts for 23 percent of the total damage, losses and needs. Mount Lebanon, including Beirut's southern suburbs, has also faced substantial challenges, making up 16 percent of the total needs. The Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa regions represent 7 percent and 6 percent of the total needs, respectively.  The World Bank also adjusted its estimate of Lebanon's GDP in 2024, now forecasting a contraction of 7.1 percent instead of the 5.7 percent estimated in a previous evaluation published in December. Without the conflict, Lebanon's GDP could have grown by 0.9 percent, World Bank experts add.  Regarding the details of the losses, the report's authors found that the residential sector bore the brunt, with $4.6 billion in damages, mainly in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Bekaa and south Lebanon, accounting for 67 percent of the total estimated damages. Infrastructure follows, accounting for 10 percent of the total.  The highest estimated needs concern the housing sector, with $6.3 billion (57 percent of the total), followed by commerce, industry, and tourism, requiring $1.8 billion (17 percent of the total). Infrastructure comes next, with combined needs of $1 billion (9 percent of the total).  The organization's previous estimate, published in November and excluding the last month of the conflict, predicted a total of $8.5 billion, comprising $3.4 billion in material damages and $5.1 billion in economic losses.  Lebanon has little choice but to rely on foreign aid to fund the reconstruction, notably from the International Monetary Fund, which implied that the current government must initiate the structural reforms required of it, including cleaning up the country's liabilities and restructuring its banks.  In February, the Institute of International Finance, which includes several major banking groups worldwide, estimated that Lebanon could hope for more than $12.5 billion in aid, including $4.5 billion from the Gulf Cooperation Council, if the new administration, born in the wake of Joseph Aoun's election on Jan. 9, succeeds where previous ones failed. (ICE BEIRUT)

Fonte notizia: L'Orient Today