Indonesia recorded a higher-than-expected trade surplus of approximately US$3.1 billion in February, driven by a sharp rebound in palm oil exports following a slowdown in the post-2022 commodity boom. This figure surpassed Bloomberg's economist forecast of US$2.2 billion and extended the country's streak of consecutive trade surpluses since May 2020.The surge in exports provides Indonesia with a significant boost as it aims to surpass the 5 percent growth barrier. Additionally, the increased trade surplus offers a potential foreign-exchange lift ahead of the dividend season in April. However, analysts caution that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of US trade policy under President Donald Trump. Josua Pardede, head economist at Bank Permata, forecasts that Indonesia's current account deficit will widen at a manageable rate this year. He attributes this to robust domestic demand driven by the government's pro-growth agenda, which is expected to increase imports. At the same time, exports may face challenges due to rising trade war tensions. Pardede anticipates that the current account deficit for 2025 will expand to 1.18 percent of GDP, as the ongoing trade war is likely to have a continuing impact. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook for Indonesia's trade balance remains cautiously optimistic, with the potential for further growth and stability.Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/indonesias-february-trade-surplus-surpasses-expectations-risks-loom (ICE GIACARTA)

Fonte notizia: Business Times, 17 March 2025