Analysts predict Kazakhstan’s Q1 GDP Growth at 5%-6%Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to grow between 5%-6% in the first quarter of 2025, according to analysts.Industry Drives GrowthOlga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, expects GDP growth to exceed 5%. "The economy had already expanded by 5.4% in January-February," she noted. Key growth drivers included trade (+6%) and manufacturing (+8.9%), particularly in machinery, food processing, chemicals, and construction materials. The extractive sector also grew (+4.1%), driven by coal production (+14%) and oil extraction (+3.7%).Zhannur Ashigali, director of sovereign and regional ratings at ACRA, forecasts 5% growth. "Kazakhstan’s economy continues to benefit from strong double-digit growth in construction, transport, and warehousing, alongside a 6% increase in industry and trade," he said.Oil Sector ConstraintsThe Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) expects a slowdown to 5-5.2% due to OPEC+ production cuts and lower oil prices. "A drop in crude output in March and increased uncertainty over CPC oil exports could limit overall GDP growth," analysts noted.Bakbergen Toktasyn, a macroeconomist at BCC Invest, predicts 5.5–6% growth in Q1, supported by strong industrial performance. He also expects significant fiscal stimulus this year, with a planned 9.5% increase in budget spending (+2.2 trillion tenge) and transfers from the National Fund totaling 5.25 trillion tenge. "This will provide a strong boost to short-term economic growth," he said.Risks of OverheatingAnalysts warn that Kazakhstan’s economy shows signs of overheating as growth outpaces its potential, largely driven by government spending."The economy has been overheated in recent years, growing mainly due to increased government spending, which contradicts the country’s monetary policy," said Toktasyn. BCC Invest estimates the optimal growth rate at 4%, but with fiscal stimulus, Q1 GDP could still reach 5.5–6%.Daniyar Orazbayev, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, expects 5.6% growth in Q1. "Short-term indicators showed acceleration in February, and we expect this trend to continue, supported by mining, transport, construction, and manufacturing," he said.Meanwhile, the National Bank of Kazakhstan forecasts GDP growth of 4.2-5.2% for 2025-2026, while the World Bank projects 4.7% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX