Inflation in Kazakhstan projected to rise to 10.3–10.8% in April — analystsInflation in Kazakhstan is expected to accelerate to 10.3–10.8% year-on-year in April, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan, while monthly price growth may slow to between 0.9% and 1.2%.Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, forecasts annual consumer inflation will rise to 10.3–10.5%, while monthly inflation could ease to 1–1.1%.“The National Bank of Kazakhstan is seeing signs of slowing consumer demand,” she said. “A high base rate and macroprudential measures aimed at curbing consumer lending could be contributing to this trend. This could support the stabilization and gradual deceleration of monthly inflation. By the end of April, it may slow to around 1–1.1% month-on-month, compared with 1.3% in March, while the annual rate could increase slightly due to the base effect to 10.3–10.5%.”The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) expects annual inflation to reach 10.5–10.8%, with monthly inflation possibly easing to 0.9–1.2%.“In April, we may see moderate monthly disinflation due to seasonal food price declines and tight monetary policy. In this case, the annual figure could rise from 10% in March to 10.5–10.8% because of the low base in April 2024,” AFK analysts said, noting that cumulative inflation in the first quarter of 2025 stood at 3.95%.“The main factors behind the acceleration were higher regulated tariffs, which triggered an inertial rise in prices in related service sectors, fiscal stimulus, elevated inflation expectations among economic agents, and limited domestic production capacity to meet growing demand for goods and services amid accelerating economic activity,” the AFK analysts added.Bakbergen Toktasyn, a macroeconomist at BCC Invest, projects annual inflation at 10.5–10.6% with monthly inflation at 1%.“In April 2025, inflationary trends in Kazakhstan are expected to continue gradually slowing. Monthly inflation (April over March) is forecast at about 1%, translating into an annual rate of 10.5–10.6%,” he said. Toktasyn attributes this to the end of the heating season, rising food prices, particularly for fresh produce, and a moderate rise in service costs. He also noted inflationary pressure from paid services and steady nonfood inflation, while food will play a bigger role in driving prices.Daniyar Orazbayev of Freedom Finance Global expects annual inflation to reach 10.8%, citing a sharper rise in prices for staple food products compared to the same period last year.“These goods rose by an average of 1.3% in the first 22 days of April, compared to a 0.3% decline last year,” he said, pointing to a surge in prices for staple vegetables like cabbage, onions, potatoes, and carrots.Annual inflation slowed to 8.6% in 2024 from 9.8% the year before. However, the National Bank of Kazakhstan recently revised its inflation forecast upward, now expecting 10–12% in 2025 and 9–11% in 2026. The central bank attributed the revision to mounting external inflationary pressures, higher fuel prices, an increase in value-added tax, and ongoing utilities sector reforms. Its medium-term goal remains to bring inflation closer to 5%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX