Kazakhstan's annual inflation accelerates to 10.8%-11.5% in May - analystsKazakhstan's annual inflation is projected to rise to 10.8%-11.5% year-on-year in May, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Monthly inflation is expected to reach 1%-1.2%.The increase follows April's annual inflation rate of 10.7%, up from 10% in March, while monthly inflation slowed slightly to 1.2% from 1.3%.The Analytical Center of Kazakhstan’s Financial Association forecasts annual inflation at 10.8%-11.2%, citing tight monetary policy, a stabilized exchange rate, and seasonal declines in fruit and vegetable prices. Monthly price growth could slow to 1.0-1.2%."May's consumer price index reflects seasonal decreases in produce prices alongside fading one-off tariff effects," analysts told Interfax-Kazakhstan. "Tight monetary policy and currency stabilization, with the tenge strengthening slightly from 512.5 to 510.9 against the dollar since May's start, further influenced inflation trends," the Analytical Center said.Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, expects monthly inflation to slow to 1% but warns annual inflation could reach 11% due to last year's low base effect."We anticipate monthly inflation slowing further to 1.0% in May, supported by the National Bank's tight monetary policy and a slightly stronger tenge," Belenkaya said. "However, sharp price increases for vegetables like onions, carrots and potatoes, along with May's railway freight and mobile internet tariff hikes, may offset some of this deceleration."Meanwhile, ACRA’s Zhannur Ashigali predicts an 11% annual rate, driven by service sector adjustments, rising utility tariffs, and imported inflation."Service sector inflation is now adjusting to match earlier spikes in food and goods prices," said the director of ACRA's sovereign and regional ratings group. "Housing utility tariffs alone contribute about 2 percentage points to overall inflation, while renewed import inflation trends are becoming increasingly visible."Freedom Finance Global’s Daniyar Orazbayev anticipates annual inflation hitting 11.3%."Staple food items are rising faster this month than last year," Orazbayev said."Prices for these goods increased 1% in the first 20 days of May, compared to a 0.1% decline during the same period in 2024. We're seeing particularly sharp increases for certain vegetables, while paid services continue adding inflationary pressure with monthly rates consistently exceeding 1% this year. Combined with last year's low food price base, these factors will likely push annual inflation higher."BCC Invest’s Bakbergen Toktasyn expects Kazakhstan's inflation to continue slowing in May 2025, with monthly price growth projected at 1.0% and annual inflation reaching 11.5%. The moderation stems from seasonal factors like increased fresh produce availability and a relatively stable tenge exchange rate, which has helped curb import inflation.The National Bank of Kazakhstan recently revised its 2025 inflation forecast upward to 10%-12%, citing external pressures, fuel costs, VAT hikes, and housing reforms. Its medium-term target remains around 5%.In 2024, inflation slowed to 8.6% from 9.8% the previous year. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX