IMF projects Kazakhstan's non-oil budget deficit to exceed 8% of GDP in 2025The International Monetary Fund forecasts Kazakhstan's non-oil budget deficit will surpass 8% of GDP in 2025 amid declining crude prices, according to a statement following the Fund's recent mission to the country.The IMF expects Kazakhstan to maintain expansionary fiscal policies next year, with the non-oil deficit widening slightly from 7.9% to just over 8% of GDP. "Fiscal and external deficits are expected to widen in the context of lower oil prices. The 2025 fiscal stance is projected by the IMF to remain expansionary, widening the non-oil fiscal deficit from 7.9 to just over 8.0 percent of GDP," the IMF said in a statement.The IMF welcomed the government’s plans to increase VAT rates, broaden the tax base, and adopt digitalization to improve revenue collection in 2026."Efforts to reduce widespread exemptions would further widen the tax base. The current account deficit is expected to widen to around 3½ percent of GDP in 2025 from 1.3 percent in 2024, mainly driven by lower oil prices and sustained import demand associated with public and household spending," the IMF said.While risks to Kazakhstan's economic outlook remain tilted to the downside, the Fund noted that the country's substantial financial buffers help mitigate vulnerabilities."An acceleration of structural reforms and private sector development poses upside risks for medium-term growth," the IMF stated.The government previously estimated a 7.3% non-oil deficit for 2025, targeting a reduction to 4% by 2027. Kazakhstan's non-oil deficit was projected at 7.8% of GDP in 2024.Kazakhstan's tax code amendments, effective in 2026, will raise VAT from 12% to 16% while increasing the threshold from 15 million to 40 million tenge. The reforms introduce differentiated rates, including 10% VAT for paid medical services, while exempting social sectors. The changes also eliminate 128 tax exemptions worth 1.3 trillion tenge ($2.55 billion).An IMF team led by Ali Al-Eyd conducted consultations in Kazakhstan from May 15-23.The tenge traded at 509.26 per U.S. dollar on Thursday. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX