Eurasian Development Bank revises Kazakhstan's 2025 inflation forecast upward to 11.9%The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has revised its inflation forecast for Kazakhstan, projecting annual inflation to reach 11.9% in 2025, significantly higher than its December estimate of 7.3%, according to the bank's latest analytical report."We expect year-end inflation to hit 11.9% in 2025, with a gradual slowdown toward the target range in 2026," said Aigul Berdigulova, senior analyst at the EDB's Country Analysis Center. The bank anticipates inflation will peak in Q2 2026 before beginning to decelerate.Berdigulova attributed rising price pressures to the tenge's depreciation in late 2024, ongoing utility tariff increases, and heightened inflation expectations amid discussions of tax reforms, including a planned VAT hike.The EDB expects Kazakhstan's central bank to maintain its key rate at 16.5% through 2025, with potential easing only in early 2026 if inflation shows sustained moderation.Kazakhstan's annual inflation accelerated to 11.3% in May. On June 5, the National Bank adjusted its inflation outlook upward to 10.5-12.5% for 2025 and 9.5-11.5% for 2026, citing food price increases, stronger demand-side pressures, and lower oil prices.After slowing from 9.8% in 2023 to 8.6% in 2024, inflation remains well above the central bank's medium-term target of stabilizing near 5%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX