Kazakhstan's economy on track for 5-6% growth in first half of 2025 -analystsKazakhstan's economy is projected to grow between 5% and 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Industrial Sector Leads Economic ExpansionKazakhstan's industrial sector is expected to be the primary driver of the country's economic growth in the first half of 2025, with most analysts projecting GDP expansion between 5% and 6%.Zhannur Ashigali, Director of Sovereign and Regional Ratings at ACRA, forecasts growth of 5-5.4%, citing particularly strong industrial performance showing 6-7% growth alongside double-digit expansion in construction, transportation and warehousing sectors. "While we observe weaker performance in telecommunications and agriculture, the economy continues to benefit from robust domestic demand that we expect to persist throughout this year," Ashigali noted.The positive outlook is shared across financial analysts, with Daniyar Orazbayev of Freedom Finance Global anticipating slightly stronger 6% GDP growth. "We expect 6% GDP growth in January-June, supported by continued strong performance in transportation and construction sectors, some acceleration in trade, and increased oil production compared to last year. While industrial growth has moderated, it continues to contribute positively to overall economic expansion," he said.Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at FINAM Group, similarly projects growth approaching 6%, pointing to a remarkable 18.2% year-on-year growth in fixed capital investments. "Economic activity is being supported by substantial investments in transport, manufacturing, and social infrastructure, as well as in equipment and new industrial facilities," Belenkaya said. She highlighted particularly vigorous growth in construction, freight transportation, trade, and industrial production.Belenkaya also noted that the government's 6% growth target aligns with the upper range of the National Bank's June forecast (5-6%) and exceeds projections from most international financial institutions. This consensus among domestic analysts suggests confidence in Kazakhstan's economic trajectory despite global uncertainties.Domestic Demand and Oil Prices Provide Additional BoostThe Kazakhstan Financial Analysts Association (AFK) projects GDP growth of 5.8-6.0% for the first half of 2025, citing three key drivers: resilient domestic consumption, favorable oil prices, and favorable base effects from last year's modest 3.2% expansion."Strong fiscal stimulus in infrastructure and social programs continues to fuel business activity across multiple sectors," AFK analysts noted, pointing to sustained consumer demand despite tight monetary policy. Retail sales grew 6.5% year-on-year, while wholesale trade expanded 8.3%, demonstrating the sector's outsized contribution to economic growth.The June oil price surge to $70.7/barrel, up from May's $63.8 amid Middle East tensions, has improved trade balance prospects.The forecast matches the National Bank of Kazakhstan's upgraded 2025 projection of 5-6% growth. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has also expressed confidence, stating the economy will grow "at least 5.5%" this year.Preliminary data shows GDP expanded by 6% in January-May 2025, reinforcing expectations of sustained growth in the second half. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX