Kazakhstan's inflation set to accelerate to 11.6-12.3% in June - AnalystsKazakhstan's annual inflation rate is projected to reach 11.6-12.3% in June, up from 11.3% in May, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan. Monthly price growth is expected to remain elevated at 0.7-1.0%, slightly below May's 0.9% increase.ACRA's Director of Sovereign and Regional Ratings Zhannur Ashigali forecasts annual inflation of 11.6-11.9%, noting: "Service sector inflation is now catching up to earlier spikes in food and goods prices. Utility tariff hikes alone contribute about 2 percentage points to overall inflation, keeping consumer prices well above the central bank's target."Sultan Zhumagali, Director of Analytics at BCC Invest, forecasts annual inflation will accelerate to 11.7% in June while monthly price increases moderate to 0.8%. "We're seeing monetary policy begin to take effect, yet persistent annual inflation reflects lingering impacts from previous price shocks," Zhumagali said. His projections suggest inflation will peak at 12.4% by September before cooling to 11.8% by year-end, with monthly inflation stabilizing between 0.7-0.8%.The analysis finds consensus among experts. Olga Belenkaya of FINAM Group anticipates similar June figures (11.7-11.8% annual, 0.7-0.8% monthly), noting "food and services continue leading price surges, driven by utility tariff hikes, fuel price deregulation, and strong consumer demand." She highlighted that businesses are already factoring in next year's planned VAT increase from 12% to 16%, adding inflationary pressure despite the National Bank's tight 16.5% base rate.Daniyar Orazbayev of Freedom Finance Global observes worrying trends in staple food prices, which rose 0.5% in June's first half compared to a 0.3% decline during the same period in 2024. "Service sector inflation remains stubbornly above 1% monthly," he noted, "and with last June's price stagnation creating a low base effect, annual inflation will likely keep climbing."The Kazakhstan Financial Analysts Association sees potential for modest monthly relief (0.7-0.9%) from seasonal produce price drops and exhausted one-off tariff impacts, though annual inflation may still reach 11.8-12.3% due to base effects. The Kazakhstan Financial Analysts Association suggests temporary relief may come from seasonal fruit/vegetable price drops, though annual inflation remains elevated due to 2024's low base effects.These projections come as the National Bank twice revised its 2025 inflation forecast upward to 10.5-12.5%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX