Kazakhstan’s annual inflation seen at 12.5-13% in Sept – analystsInflation in Kazakhstan has been increasing steadily throughout 2025, with only a brief slowdown in July. Analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan expect it to accelerate to 12.5-13% in September.DRIVERS OF INFLATIONThe lowest forecast comes from Zhannur Ashigali, director of the Sovereign and Regional Ratings Group at ACRA, who projects annual inflation at 12.5% year-on-year in September.He said consumer prices are being driven by services sector inflation, which is now adjusting to earlier sharper price growth in food and non-food products. Food inflation also remains in double digits."In September, we expect monthly consumer inflation of around 0.6%, which gives an annual inflation rate of around 12.5% and reflects a seasonal easing of price growth along with the effect of some monetary tightening," Ashigali shared his view with Interfax-Kazakhstan.At the same time, inflation remains well above the National Bank’s target of 5%, and even under the most optimistic scenario will not reach that level before 2027, he added.FEWER CONSUMER LOANS - LOWER INFLATIONA similar forecast was given by Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at FG Finam, who expects September inflation at 12.5-12.6% y/y.She noted that the slowdown in August proved short-lived, with monthly inflation accelerating to 1% from 0.7% in July – the highest August reading since 2022. Annual inflation reached 12.2%, the highest in two years. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also highlighted the issue in his recent address to the nation.According to Belenkaya, high inflationary inertia persists, supported by tariff reforms, Tenge’s depreciation against US Dollar in recent months, and overheating domestic demand driven by rapid consumption and investment growth."In September, inflation could be 0.7-0.8% m/m, 12.5-12.6% y/y. We expect approximately the same annual inflation until the end of the year," Belenkaya noted, adding that a gradual reduction in inflation may be supported by a slowdown in retail lending, a possible hike in the policy rate, and new minimum reserve requirements introduced by the National Bank in September. The regulator expects these measures to strengthen policy transmission and exert additional disinflationary pressure.OIL SITUATION FUELS INFLATIONEconomist Baurzhan Shurmanov also bets on 12.6% in September. He said the main drivers of price growth are fuel, food, and uncertainty over Kazakhstan’s main oil export route, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)."According to my calculations, inflation at the end of September will be about 0.9% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year. The main pressure comes from rising fuel prices, increased food costs, primarily meat, as well as the effect of Tenge's weakening, which intensified after the attack on the CPC facilities in Novorossiysk," Shurmanov notes.He said that since up to 80% of Kazakh oil exports go through the CPC, even short-term disruptions in shipments are perceived by the market as a risk factor, pushing inflation up through the import channel.“Thus, the September picture is mixed: on the one hand, GDP growth remains strong, but on the other, inflation continues to accelerate, especially given the CPC situation,” Shurmanov said. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX