INFLATION MAY PEAK IN SEPTEMBERThe most pessimistic forecast comes from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), which expects inflation at 12.7-13%."In September, the CPI (consumer price index) on a monthly basis could be 0.8-1.0%, and in annual terms, in this case, it will accelerate to 12.7-13.0%. This may mark the peak for the year, reflecting the low base in September 2024, when CPI rose just 0.4% m/m," AFK said.The main pressure on inflation is formed by a number of factors, according to AFK.Firstly, structural changes in utility tariffs and rising fuel prices, which directly raise business costs and service prices. Secondly, the weakening of Tenge is translating into prices for imported goods (including equipment, medicines, transport). Thirdly, persistently high household inflation expectations and pending large-scale tax reforms, which fuel second-round effects as businesses build expected cost increases into prices.Finally, the end of the fruit and vegetable season will add a few basis points to the CPI dynamics.“High domestic demand also plays a major role – wage and income growth are outpacing output, boosting consumption despite limited supply-side expansion. Expansionary fiscal policy supports growth but adds to inflationary pressures,” the Association said.ACUTE PROBLEMPrime Minister of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov said earlier that it may be possible to cap inflation at no more than 11% y/y over the remainder of 2025.In his address to the nation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated that inflation in the country had become particularly acute. He instructed the government and the National Bank to work as one team to solve this problem.In early June, the National Bank of Kazakhstan revised its inflation forecasts upwards for the second time in a year: to 10.5-12.5% in 2025 and to 9.5-11.5% in 2026.In August, annual inflation in Kazakhstan reached 12.2%, exceeding the July figure (11.8%).In 2024, inflation in Kazakhstan slowed to 8.6% from 9.8% in 2023. The country's National Bank aims to stabilize it near 5% in the medium term. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX