Inflation in Ukraine, according to the baseline scenario, will decrease to 9.2% by the end of 2025 and approach the target of 5% in 2027, according to the NBU Inflation Report. The regulator expects the slowdown in inflation to be driven by a high food supply and better grain harvests. At the same time, risks to inflation reduction will include electricity shortages and supply disruptions, as well as an increase in administratively regulated tariffs.The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been reduced to 1.9% due to the destruction of infrastructure and gas production capacity along with weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. In 2026, the economic recovery will remain moderate at around 2% due to security risks and electricity shortages and will accelerate to 2.8% in 2027 thanks to higher harvests and investments in reconstruction and defense.The NBU also expects unemployment to decline to around 11% in 2025, 10% in 2026, and 9% in 2027. Real wages will grow by around 6% in 2025 and by 4-5% each year in 2026-2027, although labor shortages will remain a constraint on production. The budget deficit in 2025 is estimated at around 25% of GDP, gradually decreasing to 19% in 2026 and 14% in 2027. Fiscal needs will be covered by external revenues of about $51.5B in 2025, over $45B in 2026, and $39B in 2027.https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/IR_2025-Q4.pdfhttps://ubn.news/what-will-happen-to-inflation-and-ukraines-gdp-in-the-coming-years/ (ICE KIEV)

Fonte notizia: UBN News