OVERVIEW: inflation kept in check by state controlsInflation in Kazakhstan is projected to settle in the range of 12.6%–13.3% at the end of October 2025, remaining firmly in double digits, according to analysts polled by Interfax-Kazakhstan. Experts say that while the pace of price growth is gradually stabilizing, forecasts for the year-end remain widely divergent — from 10.8% to 14%.INFLATION SPIRALS OUT OF CONTROLAccording to the National Statistics Bureau of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms, annual inflation accelerated to 12.9% in September 2025, in line with analysts’ expectations. The increase came despite tighter monetary policy and a series of government interventions aimed at stabilizing the consumer market.The rapid surge in prices appears to have forced the government to abandon its optimistic outlook and adopt tougher measures to avert social discontent. In response, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) raised its base rate from 16.5% to 18%, signaling readiness for further tightening if necessary.The National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov said future rate decisions will depend on inflation dynamics and new macroeconomic data, noting that the central bank will update its models during its next forecast round in November.Soon after, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov instructed government agencies to “actively stabilize” inflation by increasing domestic supply, replenishing stabilization funds with food products, and restraining consumer lending. He also urged banks and retailers to end misleading “interest-free installment” schemes and disclose the true cost of goods.To further curb inflation, the government imposed a moratorium on retail price increases for RON-92 gasoline and diesel from October 16, which will remain in effect until inflation stabilizes — not expected before spring 2026. Meanwhile, the government and the National Bank are jointly preparing a new anti-inflation action plan.“At the end of September, inflation stood at 12.9%. This is a high figure and must be reduced. For the government, macroeconomic stability remains the top priority,” Bektenov said.Authorities expect the combination of tight monetary policy and administrative controls to slow price growth in the coming months. Analysts caution, however, that monetary policy operates with a time lag, and sustained disinflation will require exchange rate stability and stronger domestic production.THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL OVER AN OVERHEATED ECONOMYThe Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) estimates October’s CPI growth at 0.7%–0.9% month-on-month, translating into 12.6%–12.8% year-on-year. Analysts note that inflationary pressures have eased somewhat due to administrative curbs such as the temporary freeze on fuel prices and the postponement of utility tariff hikes. Additional disinflationary support came from recent tax relief measures for businesses.“The key factors behind the slowdown include the delay in utility tariff increases, which reduces pressure from housing and communal services. Further support comes from the price freeze on fuels introduced on October 16 and the easing of fiscal requirements under the new Tax Code,” AFK said.However, the analysts warn that despite administrative efforts, inflationary risks persist. The economy remains overheated: household incomes rose 8.9%, wages 11.3%, while GDP expanded only 6.3%.“This imbalance adds demand-side pressure in conditions of constrained supply,” AFK noted.A weaker Tenge continues to exacerbate imported inflation, raising prices for goods ranging from medicines to automobiles and appliances. Consumer expectations remain high, further fueling the inflationary cycle.AFK projects that by the end of 2025, inflation will likely fall within 10.8%–11.3%. If current administrative measures are maintained, inflation could approach the lower end of this range; however, relaxation of controls, higher import costs, or rising budget expenditures could push it higher. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX