ECONOMY IN OVERHEATING MODEThe Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) holds a more pessimistic outlook. A senior analyst at the bank expects October inflation to rise to 13.3%, citing higher global food prices, a 6.8% depreciation of Tenge since May, and rising utility tariffs.“We estimate annual CPI growth at 13.3% in October, up from 12.9% in September. Domestic price pressures stem from higher global food prices, rising utility tariffs, and Tenge’s depreciation. These factors will continue shaping the inflationary backdrop,” the analyst said.The EDB projects that inflation could approach 14% by year-end, despite tighter monetary conditions.A similar forecast was voiced by Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam Investment Company, who expects inflation to reach 13.5%–14% by December. She said that September marked a renewed acceleration in inflation, both month-on-month and year-on-year.“The key drivers are overheated domestic demand, expansionary fiscal policy, growth in consumer lending, and cost-push factors linked to fuel market liberalization, Tenge depreciation, and tariff reforms,” Belenkaya said.Belenkaya added that high inflation expectations, fueled by the planned VAT rate increase in 2026, are further exacerbating price pressures. Volatility in global oil markets could also weigh on Tenge and sustain inflationary momentum.She said that in October, the National Bank sharply raised the base rate to 18% from 16.5% “to prevent the formation of an inflationary spiral,” but warned that monetary policy effects take several quarters to materialize.According to Finam’s estimates, monthly inflation in October could reach 1.0%–1.1%, pushing annual inflation above 13%.“By the end of 2025, we expect inflation in the range of 13.5%–14%,” Belenkaya said. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX