Iraq’s parliamentary elections are set to take place on 11 November 2025. Yet despite the streets being adorned with campaign posters, there is little buzz in the air. Many Iraqis are expected to stay at home, having grown disillusioned with the ability of elections to deliver change in the two decades of democracy since the US-led regime change. There is already a broad consensus on the likely results of the election. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s electoral list is widely seen as the frontrunner, with the ruling coalition of Shia parties under the Shia Coordination Framework expected to retain power through a consensus government that includes the major Kurdish and Sunni blocs.However, Sudani himself is seen as unlikely to remain prime minister even if his list wins the most votes: this will instead be decided in the complex post-election government formation talks between parties. After every previous vote, the election winner has not gone on to become prime minister.Indeed, the election is less a referendum on government performance than an opportunity for deeply entrenched party elites to recalibrate power among themselves. The seats won at the polls will serve as bargaining chips, which elites deploy alongside other levers of power – including violence and street mobilization – as parties vie for senior government positions. The outcome of this bargaining could test Iraq’s stability. The country is entering the election from a rare moment of calm, which rests on a fragile elite pact that has traded reform for order. If the process proceeds smoothly, it will reaffirm Iraq’s managed stability through another cycle of competition within the system. But if rival factions perceive an imbalance or attempt to disrupt long-standing arrangements, even momentary instability could shake Iraq’s fragile equilibrium.For the many Iraqis who stand outside the networks of power, the political system feels neither representative nor responsive. After two decades of elections and promises of reform, daily life for most Iraqis remains defined by hardship and neglect. On the most basic measures of governance the state consistently falls short. Iraq, despite its vast oil wealth, continues to rank among the poorest performers in service delivery and among the most corrupt globally.  (ICE AMMAN)

Fonte notizia: Stampa Locale