Hong Kong raises GDP growth forecast to 3.2% amid ‘robust’ economic performance The Hong Kong government has revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 from 2 to 3 per cent to 3.2 per cent, with the finance chief attributing the higher projection to better-than-expected performance in the first three quarters and a positive outlook after a slight de-escalation of the US-China trade war. The Census and Statistics Department on Friday revealed that it upgraded the real GDP forecast for 2025 to 3.2 per cent, taking into account the actual outturn of 3.3 per cent in the first three quarters of the year and the near-term outlook. The department also announced a revised figure of 3.8 per cent GDP growth in the third quarter, in line with an advanced estimate revealed by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po last month. He had previously forecast during his 2025-26 budget speech in February that Hong Kong’s economy would continue to grow moderately by 2 to 3 per cent for the year. Chan on Friday explained the revised figure, saying that Hong Kong’s economy was growing steadily despite facing a constantly changing and highly uncertain external environment. Chan said the double-digit growth in exports reflected adjustments made by exporters in response to mainland enterprises arranging supply and industrial chains within the region to mitigate the impact of the tariff war. Acting government economist Dr Cecilia Lam Kwok-ying said that Hong Kong’s economy should see further solid growth for the rest of 2025. She said that sustained moderate growth of the global economy in the near term, coupled with easing China-US trade tensions and persistent demand for electronics-related products, together with a rise in inbound tourism and financial market activities, would boost Hong Kong’s exports of goods and services. “Nevertheless, external uncertainties arising from the lingering impacts of trade barriers, the pace of US interest rate cuts, and the potential moderation in goods export growth due to fluctuations in external demand warrant close monitoring.” Hong Kong’s GDP expanded by at least 3 per cent in each quarter so far this year, rising 3 per cent year on year in the first quarter, 3.1 per cent in the second, and 3.8 per cent in the third. Lam said Hong Kong’s economy staged a robust performance in the third quarter, driven by a continued surge in exports and sustained expansion in domestic demand. The total export of goods continued to grow by 12.1 per cent year on year in the third quarter, propelled by strong demand for electronics-related products and regional trade flows. Private consumption expenditure rose slightly by 2.1 per cent year on year while investment saw an “accelerated increase” of 4.3 per cent year on year, Lam said. Amid positive market sentiments over a thriving technology sector, the local stock market was bullish in the third quarter, Lam said, with rising expectations of further US interest rate cuts and easing of global trade tensions. Economic uncertainty surrounding the city eased last month after Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Donald Trump clinched a deal to suspend the trade war for one year until next August. As part of the deal, the US also kept the 10 per cent so-called reciprocal tariff it imposed on Hong Kong and mainland China unchanged until August. Hong Kong’s exports also performed well during this nine-month period, rising by 13.4 per cent, with marked growth seen in Asian markets such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and the mainland. Economists told the Post that strong exports and robust financial activity were the main drivers of the 3.8 per cent quarterly growth. She highlighted the innovation and technology sector – in particular, the artificial intelligence (AI) industry – as a bright spot in the economy that was backed by generous government investments. The wide adoption of AI could also boost productivity, she said. Yuen added that the financial sector remained a strong pillar of Hong Kong’s economic growth, as robust financial activities, including the growth of the IPO market, could create positive spillover effects. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3332811/hong-kong-raises-gdp-forecast-32-cent-amid-better-expected-growth (ICE HONG KONG)

Fonte notizia: South China Morning Post