National Bank of Kazakhstan holds base rate at 18% as expected (Part 2)The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has made the decision to hold the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point (pp), the National Bank said in a statement.Analysts surveyed by Interfax had predicted that the bank would hold the rate.“The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has decided to maintain the base rate at 18.0% per annum with an interest rate corridor of ±1 p.p. The decision is based on the results of the latest forecast round, updated assessments of key macroeconomic indicators and the balance of inflation risks,” the statement said.Annual inflation in October stood at 12.6% (12.9% in September). Food inflation accelerated to 13.5% (12.7%), and non-food inflation edged up to 11% (10.8%). Services inflation slowed to 12.9% (15.3%) due to administrative reductions in tariffs for regulated housing and communal services.Food inflation remains the main contributor to overall price growth amid persistent distortions in several commodity markets, sustained domestic demand, higher import prices and rising production costs. The contribution of services inflation has decreased but remains notable despite the slowdown. In the non-food segment, price pressures intensified for fuel and pharmaceutical products, the regulator noted.Household inflation expectations rose to 13.6% in October from 13.2% in September. Short-term expectations remain volatile and subject to high uncertainty. Long-term expectations increased to 14.3% (from 14%). Elevated expectations continue to constrain the disinflation process and heighten price sensitivity to cost and demand shocks.External inflationary pressures also persist. Global food prices remain elevated. In Russia, inflation—though slowing—continues to exceed the 4% target, prompting the Bank of Russia to maintain hawkish guidance and signal the need for tight monetary conditions.In the United States, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance amid heightened uncertainty, noting moderate economic growth, a cooling labor market, and inflation still above target. The European Central Bank’s rhetoric likewise remains guarded after it kept its policy rate unchanged once again. A slower pace of monetary easing is expected globally.Under the updated baseline scenario, the National Bank maintains its Brent crude price assumption at an average of $60 per barrel through the end of the forecast horizon.On October 10, 2025, the National Bank raised the base rate from 16.5% to 18% per annum.The Monetary Policy Committee will announce its next base rate decision on January 23, 2026, at 12:00 Astana time. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX