Kazakh National Bank raises GDP forecast for 2025 and 2027, cuts outlook for 2026The National Bank of Kazakhstan has updated its economic growth forecasts for 2025–2027, the regulator’s press service said.The GDP growth outlook for 2025 has been upgraded to 6.0%–6.5% from the previous 5.5%–6.5%, reflecting faster-than-expected oil production growth, as well as stronger investment and consumer demand in recent months, partly driven by expectations ahead of the VAT reform planned for 2026, the National Bank said.The forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 3.5%–4.5% (from 4%–5% previously), due to the high statistical base from 2025 and the anticipated dampening effects of tax and fiscal reforms and budget consolidation measures on domestic demand.For 2027, the regulator now expects GDP growth of 4.0%–5.0%, compared with the earlier projection of 3.5%–4.5%. Growth that year will be supported by expanding investment activity, moderate consumer demand and rising oil output, the central bank noted.The baseline scenario continues to assume an average Brent crude price of $60 per barrel through the end of the forecast horizon (2027).Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.8% in 2024. The Ministry of Economy projects 6.3%–6.5% GDP growth in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund expects growth to exceed 6%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX