YEAR IN REVIEW: Economy's temporary reprieveIn October, Kazakhstan recorded a notable inflation slowdown to 12.6% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month. This became possible due to the government's radical decisions, including an introduced moratorium on price increases for fuel and utilities, as well as a reduction in regulated tariffs, which temporarily eased pressure on the consumer market.In November, according to estimates by analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan, inflation may pick up again: growth is expected at 0.7-0.9% month-on-month and 12.3-12.6% year-on-year. Experts associate the upcoming increase with seasonal demand growth, business preparation for VAT increases in 2026, and persistently high inflation expectations, while the effect of administrative measures that supported October statistics is gradually weakening.INFLATIONARY SWINGSDomestically, the main focus of government measures is shifting to the food sector, which, according to Vice Prime Minister - Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, remains the main driver of current inflation against the backdrop of frozen utility tariffs. The Cabinet of Ministers has instructed the Ministry of Trade to conduct a detailed analysis of the food basket, strengthen control over supply chains, reduce the number of intermediaries, and ensure transparency in the turnover of goods.The issue of inflation's impact on living standards also remains acute. Despite a 10% increase in nominal wages over nine months, the real figure remains negative. The government forecasts an annual increase in household incomes of 2-3% in 2026-2028 but emphasizes that persistent price pressures continue to constrain purchasing power.PAUSED OPTIMISMAs Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at the investment company Finam, notes, the key question is how sustainable the sharp slowdown in inflation recorded in October will be.According to her, the main factor reducing inflationary pressure was the cheaper services, primarily regulated utility tariffs. In contrast, prices for food and non-food items continued to rise. She believes the increase in the key rate by the National Bank from 16.5% to 18% also played a significant role.In November, Belenkaya estimates that inflation will continue to be constrained by tight monetary policy, restrictions on consumer lending, a stable tenge exchange rate, and temporary anti-inflationary measures. At the same time, pro-inflationary risks persist, related to a potential reaction from businesses to the expected increase in the VAT rate from 12% to 16% starting in 2026."We believe that inflation in November could be 0.7-0.9% month-on-month and 12.3-12.6% year-on-year," the analyst forecasts.SEASON PUTS PRESSURE ON PRICESThe Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan presented similar estimates. According to their forecasts, as of December 1, annual inflation in Kazakhstan will be 12.3-12.6%, and for the entire year of 2025 - 12-12.2%, which is close to the upper limit of the National Bank's forecast corridor (11-12.5%).Artur Sharafutdinov, Head of the Country Analysis Center at the Analytical Directorate of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), believes that the key factors behind the slowdown in inflation in October were a reduction in regulated tariffs and government restrictions on price increases."The slowdown in annual inflation to 12.6% in October is linked to a 40% reduction in the cold water tariff in October. Furthermore, the government decided to introduce a moratorium on further price increases for utilities and gasoline until the inflation level stabilizes. Considering these new factors, inflation dynamics will slow down and, according to our estimates, will reach 12.4% and 12.3% at the end of November and December 2025, respectively," he comments. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX