Fitch Solutions has recently issued a new Consumer & Retail Outlook report for Lebanon, including 5-year forecasts up to 2029.  Fitch Solutions holds a moderately improved outlook for the Lebanese consumer over 2026, as anticipated political and security stabilization, including renewed engagement with GCC and Western partners, is set to support consumer confidence and the gradual normalization of household budgets compared with 2025. This view is further reinforced by easing inflation and the resumption of wider economic activity across key consumer-facing sectors.  Household spending in Lebanon in 2026 signals emerging resilience and recovery as the economy stabilizes, supported by pre-election spending and foreign financing tied to reconstruction. For 2026, Fitch Solutions projects real household spending, measured at 2010 prices, at LP 41.2 trillion, reflecting a 7.0% y-o-y expansion, compared to 2.8% in 2025. This real spending remains significantly below its 2017 peak, prior to the onset of structural economic challenges and years of hyperinflation, underscoring the still-fragile state of the Lebanese consumer relative to the pre-crisis period.  The forecast for growth in consumer spending in 2026 aligns with the Country Risk team’s projection that the Lebanese economy expands by 6.0% y-o-y in 2026, following a weaker rebound of 3.0% in 2025.  Improving security conditions are expected to encourage GCC states to lift travel bans, reviving tourism and services demand. Meanwhile, Banque du Liban’s liquidity management and the stabilized exchange rate at LBP 89,500 per USD help curb inflation from 14.3% in 2025 to 12.8% in 2026, supporting households’ purchasing power after years of erosion. Overall, stabilizing political conditions, renewed foreign financing and an uptick in reconstruction activity support domestic demand across sectors such as retail, tourism, transport, hospitality, construction and services. (ICE BEIRUT)

Fonte notizia: Bank Audi 17-23 Nov. 2025