Indonesia enters 2026 with stable but moderate economic momentum, with GDP growth projected at around 5.1%. Inflation is expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s 2.5% target range, supported by policy continuity and steady domestic demand. Household consumption—more than half of GDP—is forecast to grow about 5%, helped by low inflation and social assistance. However, real wages have been declining, and job creation remains concentrated in lower value-added sectors, limiting improvements in purchasing power. Investment performance strengthened in 2025, with realized investment reaching USD 89.6 billion in the first three quarters, driven by transport, logistics, telecommunications, and mining. Nevertheless, foreign direct investment remains narrowly focused on downstream processing, limiting broader employment gains. External headwinds continue to weigh on Indonesia’s outlook. The current account deficit is projected to widen slightly to –1.2% of GDP in 2026, reflecting softer commodity prices and slower global trade. Exports are expected to remain under pressure after reaching USD 309.7 billion in 2024, while imports rose to USD 284.7 billion. Fiscal policy in 2026 prioritizes social programs—such as village cooperatives and free nutritious meals—despite tighter fiscal space and rising debt service costs. Government investment plans target IDR 683 trillion in funding and IDR 567.9 trillion in strategic investment programs, including energy, food security, and major partnerships with foreign investors. Monetary policy remains accommodative, with the policy rate at 4.75%, though exchange rate stability limits room for further cuts. Overall, Indonesia’s 2026 outlook reflects resilience but limited acceleration, with structural reforms needed to boost productivity, job quality, and long-term growth.Source: https://business-indonesia.org/news/indonesia-s-economic-outlook-2026-resilient-but-acceleration-elusive  (ICE GIACARTA)

Fonte notizia: Business-indonesia.org, 18 December 2025