IMF sees Kazakhstan GDP growth slowing to 3.5% in medium termThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kazakhstan’s economic growth to slow to about 3.5% in the medium term, according to a staff report following an IMF mission to the country November 6 through 19, 2025.“After growing by around 5% in 2023 and 2024, the economy is expected to expand by 6.2% in 2025, fueled by rising oil production, a loose fiscal stance, expanding quasi-fiscal activities, and rapid consumer lending,” the report says.Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 12.5% and the current account deficit is widening, according to IMF.“The outlook faces elevated risks from persistent inflation, an uncertain external environment, and weaker oil prices,” the document reads.IMF welcomed the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s tighter monetary policy, including base rate hikes and measures to absorb excess liquidity.“Monetary policy should remain tight until inflation is close to target. Additional policy rate hikes should be delivered if inflation rises further. In addition, structural measures to absorb the overhang of excess liquidity, including greater issuance of National Bank of Kazakhstan short-term notes, are needed and would also strengthen monetary policy transmission,” the report says.According to IMF, strong policy coordination, backed by prudential measures and decisive reforms, is essential for Kazakhstan to support overall fiscal consolidation, reduce inflation, diversify the economy, and achieve sustainable, low-inflation growth.The outlook faces elevated external risks, including a growth slowdown or renewed inflation pressures in major trading partners, trade fragmentation and global policy uncertainty, and lower oil prices.Domestic risks relate to revenue underperformance from widespread exemptions, potential delays in implementing infrastructure projects, continued liquidity injections into the economy via large transfers from the oil fund, which could further de-anchor inflation expectations, the report says.As reported, the IMF estimates Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 6.2% in 2025, while the Ministry of Economy puts it at 6.5%. In 2024, growth stood at 4.8%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX