The global memory semiconductor market's center of gravity is shifting from DRAM to NAND flash. This is because, as AI infrastructure transitions from the "training" to the "inference" phase, demand for high-capacity SSDs (eSSDs) has surged, elevating NAND flash to a core strategic asset. Amid soaring prices, overseas competitors are launching aggressive offensives to reclaim market share. Meanwhile, concerns are growing that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which have focused resources on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) while suppressing NAND expansion, may lose their supply leadership. According to market research firm TrendForce, NAND flash contract prices in the first quarter of this year are projected to surge by up to 55–60% compared to the previous quarter. This exceeds the initial forecast of around 30%, indicating that NAND is replicating the "supercycle" price trajectory previously seen in DRAM. NVIDIA's integrated storage management (ICMS) strategy, adopted in its next-generation "Rubin" platform, has accelerated this trend. ICMS is essentially a "high-speed warehouse" strategy that places frequently used data directly adjacent to the graphics processing unit (GPU). By elevating NAND from a mere "storage warehouse" to a critical layer influencing computational efficiency—the so-called "Hot Data Layer"—it has become an essential element for AI performance enhancement. However, some industry observers argue that this "golden cycle" in the NAND market could paradoxically become a crisis for South Korean semiconductor firms. While Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix maximize profits by focusing on HBM, global competitors are seizing the opportunity to reclaim market share. Currently, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are recording historically high margins of 40–50% in the NAND sector, pursuing profit maximization. However, this strategy is also seen as a risky "tightrope walk," as competitors expand facility investments while the companies cede supply leadership. As a countermeasure, domestic firms plan to begin full-scale investments in cutting-edge NAND process transitions from the second quarter of this year. Samsung Electronics is accelerating the transition to 9th-generation (V9) NAND at its Xi'an and Pyeongtaek lines. SK Hynix aims to solidify its lead in the high-value eSSD market by leveraging its 321-layer QLC (4-bit per cell) NAND, which it was the first to mass-produce. Overseas competitors are also intensifying their pursuit. U.S.-based Micron is reinvesting massive cash reserves—secured from HBM sales—into NAND. Micron recently broke ground on an advanced NAND factory worth approximately 35 trillion Korean won in Singapore, officially announcing plans to double production capacity by 2028. This move aims to lock in global big-tech customers through long-term contracts, leveraging NAND's "lock-in effect." The Kioxia-WD alliance has declared "full NAND sales by 2026" and is accelerating the mass production of 332-layer 10th-generation NAND to secure technological leadership. The most threatening variable, Chinese YMTC, has already succeeded in mass-producing 270-layer NAND, narrowing the technological gap with South Korea to less than a year. YMTC's goal of achieving a 15% global market share by the end of this year is now within sight. "A source from the semiconductor industry" stated, "If South Korea cedes leadership in the NAND ecosystem to the U.S. or China, its influence in the data hub market—central to future AI infrastructure—will inevitably shrink. How aggressively profits earned from DRAM are reinvested into cutting-edge NAND process transitions will determine the outcome of the market hegemony competition."   (ICE SEOUL)

Fonte notizia: The Chosun Daily