EBRD raises Kazakhstan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.7%The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.7% for 2026, according to its February 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report.The previous forecast from September projected economic growth at 4.5%.The EBRD estimates that Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth accelerated to 6.5% in 2025, marking its strongest performance since 2011. The boost was largely attributed to the long-awaited completion of expansion work at the Tengiz oil field, which led to a 7.5% year-on-year increase in industrial production.Economic activity also strengthened in the transport and trade sectors, supported by rising cargo volumes, including along the Middle Corridor, and active consumer lending.Among the factors influencing the macroeconomic situation, the EBRD highlighted persistent inflationary pressure, which has kept interest rates elevated. The National Bank’s key rate remains at 18%. Inflation stood at 12.3% in December 2025.The EBRD expects Kazakhstan’s economic growth to slow to 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, reflecting lower oil prices. Downside risks are tied to the country’s heavy reliance on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure for oil exports. However, analysts noted these challenges are mitigated by ongoing investments in infrastructure and efforts to diversify the economy. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX