Kazakh inflation likely eased slightly in February - analystsInflation in Kazakhstan likely moderated slightly in February, with annual price growth easing to between 11.6% and 12.2% and monthly inflation at 0.8% to 1%, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.If realized, the decline would mark a slowdown from January's 12.2% annual reading, supported by a high base effect from the previous year and some strengthening of the national currency.However, analysts caution that significant disinflation remains unlikely amid persistent upward pressure from multiple factors, including January's value-added tax increase from 12% to 16% and the anticipated lifting of a moratorium on utility tariff hikes starting April 1.President Demands ActionPresident Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Feb. 10 directed the government and central bank to "urgently reverse the unfavorable situation" and implement concrete measures to reduce inflation over three years. He warned that attempts to "talk through" the problem with discussions or unnecessary roadmaps would be "regarded as avoidance of responsibility."The government subsequently announced plans to draft a comprehensive strategy targeting 9% to 11% inflation and approve a 2026-2029 income improvement program by May 1.Analyst ForecastsACRA sovereign ratings director Zhanur Ashigali offered the most optimistic forecast, projecting February inflation at 11.6% to 11.7%."We expect monthly inflation close to 1%, which gives an annual level of 11.6-11.7%," Ashigali said. "Annual inflation continues to remain significantly above the National Bank's target of 5% and, by the most optimistic forecasts, will reach that level no earlier than the end of 2027."He cited pro-inflationary signals from both regulated prices and market demand, adding that consumer prices are being driven by services, food and non-food inflation, along with external pressures from trading partners.The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) expects monthly inflation of 0.8% to 1.0%, with the annual rate dipping to 11.6% to 11.8% primarily due to base effects rather than a genuine trend reversal."Current dynamics are supported by sustained domestic demand amid expanded government spending, which increases pressure through the income channel and budget injections into the economy," AFK noted, pointing to this year's budget increase to 37.4 trillion tenge from 34.5 trillion in 2025.The VAT increase is gradually feeding into business costs and final prices, AFK added, while disinflationary factors remain limited.Freedom Finance Global analyst Daniyar Orazbayev forecast February inflation at 11.8%, citing slowing price growth for socially significant food products and last February's high base for both food and paid services.Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova placed inflation at 12.0% to 12.2% annually, near January's level."The January reading was 12.2%, and so far there are no factors capable of ensuring a sharp acceleration of disinflation," Bodrova said. "February will most likely confirm the trend toward very gradual slowdown without transitioning to sustainable single-digit dynamics."The official exchange rate stood at 501.75 tenge per U.S. dollar on Feb. 27. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX