Finance chief says Hong Kong on track for strongest quarterly growth in 5 years Hong Kong is set for its strongest quarterly growth in nearly five years, the finance chief has said, citing a 17 per cent rise in visitor numbers and a 5.2 per cent increase in retail and catering spending. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said in his Sunday blog that 602,000 visitors entered Hong Kong in the first two days of mainland China’s Labour Day “golden week” break, a 6 per cent rise year on year. Despite a complex and rapidly changing external environment, Hong Kong’s economy continued to improve in both scale and quality, supported by stronger private consumption and solid exports and fixed investment, he said. “The first-quarter gross domestic product forecast to be released this week is expected to accelerate further from the revised 4 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of last year, marking the strongest quarterly growth in nearly five years,” he said. The preliminary growth figure is due to be released on Tuesday. Chan added that inbound tourism levels remained strong, with visitor numbers for the first three months of 2026 rising by 17 per cent to more than 14.3 million year on year, a post-pandemic quarterly high. Arrivals were expected to exceed the original full-year forecast of 53.8 million, helping to push inbound tourism-related spending above HK$240 billion (US$30.6 billion), up by 9.5 per cent from last year, he said. “These factors will consolidate the positive outlook for the local retail and catering sectors, continuing to provide support for overall economic growth and the labour market,” he said. He pointed to a 5.2 per cent increase in daily retail and catering spending in the first quarter against a year ago, with expenditure at full-service restaurants rising by 8 per cent. He also highlighted a 32 per cent rise in export value in the first quarter against a year ago, the strongest performance in five years. Chan added that market sentiment remained positive, with robust stock trading and continued momentum in the residential property sector. He also noted the jobless rate fell to 3.7 per cent in the first quarter, while earnings for full-time employees rose by more than 3 per cent. He said Hong Kong should focus on both “stability” and “progress”, particularly by accelerating the adoption of artificial intelligence across sectors and strengthening talent development. Vera Yuen Wing-han, a political economy lecturer at the University of Hong Kong, said uncertainties brought by the Iran war remained, despite the improving real estate market triggering a “wealth effect” in which homeowners become more inclined to spend after seeing their property values increase. “But the figures show that the segment driven by tourist spending is performing better,” Yuen said. “Retail spending for local livelihoods continues to be impacted by a significant outflow of consumption, as the trend of ‘northbound’ spending in mainland China remains incredibly strong.” She added that while high-end and tourist-focused establishments might benefit, some local vendors were struggling with high operational costs and intensifying competition from mainland brands. According to calculations by the South China Morning Post, 789,354 Hongkongers left the city during the first two days of the holiday, a 30.6 per cent jump from the corresponding period last year. Yuen also noted that about 70 per cent of Hong Kong’s exports were electronic products, including integrated circuits and smart devices, which were needed for components related to AI. Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, also said that equity and real estate prices might continue to be volatile especially if the war drove global inflation and interest rates higher. “Despite the better headline GDP figure, there are ongoing challenges in the K-shaped recovery and the weaker ability to turn growth into jobs during the economic transition, especially if the Iran war heats up global inflation and interest rates,” Ng said. “Equity and real estate prices may continue to be volatile.” A K-shaped recovery refers to an uneven economic rebound where certain sectors thrive while others decline, widening inequality after a recession. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3352258/finance-chief-says-hong-kong-track-strongest-quarterly-growth-5-years?module=top_story&pgtype=section (ICE HONG KONG)

Fonte notizia: South China Morning Post