As stated in the NBU’s Inflation Report, further wage increases in Ukraine will be driven by the continued labor shortage and high competition for employees. It is expected that in 2026 the real wage growth rate will be 11.6%. In the next two years, wage growth will continue, but at a slower pace: 7.1% in 2027 and 5.8% in 2028. The regulator also noted some improvement in the labor market, particularly an increase in labor supply. “The share of the economically active population in March reached its highest level since spring 2023. The increase in the number of job seekers outpaced the growth in the number of vacancies,” the document states.The NBU has maintained its assumption of a net population outflow in 2026 at 200,000 people. At the same time, the baseline scenario assumes a reversal of migration flows in 2027-2028. Thus, in 2027 100,000 people are expected to return, and 500,000 in 2028. However, the NBU considers the risk of a prolonged population outflow as a significant factor that will limit economic growth in the long term. The slow return of Ukrainian citizens will preserve significant imbalances in the labor market and the labor shortage.https://ubn.news/the-national-bank-predicts-an-over-11-wage-increase-in-ukraine-in-response-to-the-labor-shortage-and-against-the-backdrop-of-further-population-outflow/ (ICE KIEV)

Fonte notizia: Ukrainian Business News www.ubn.news