Kazakhstan grain union holds export forecast at 13.4 min tonnes amid market stagnationThe Grain Union of Kazakhstan said Monday it is maintaining its grain export forecast at 13.4 million tonnes for the current agricultural year despite sluggish activity on both domestic and foreign markets."We are not changing the grain export forecast for now. We will look at the April data and the dynamics for May," Yevgeny Karabanov, head of analytics at the union, told Interfax-Kazakhstan.Karabanov said negative factors including changes to the country's Tax Code and a strong tenge continue to weigh on the market. "Activity on the domestic and external markets remains low. The disparity between domestic and export prices persists, which is stripping exporters of margins," he said.Adding to the uncertainty, Russian Railways, or RZD, has decided to raise transit tariffs on routes toward the Baltic states starting in June, while Kazakhstan's national railway company, KTZ, has applied to increase fees for trunk railway network services, including for grain cargoes headed for export."These factors, along with the seasonal slowdown in grain market activity, are leading to export stagnation," Karabanov said.KTZ has filed an application with the country's antitrust committee to raise its trunk railway network tariff by 80%.In late April, the Grain Union raised its grain export forecast for the current agricultural year by 3%, lifting it to 13.4 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 13 million tonnes.As of May 22, Kazakhstan had shipped 11.7 million tonnes of grain for export since the start of the agricultural year in September 2025, up 13.6% from the same period a year earlier.The Agriculture Ministry plans to export 13 million tonnes of grain from the new harvest in the 2025-2026 agricultural year, roughly in line with the previous season.Kazakhstan increased its grain harvest by 2% to 27 million tonnes in 2025, with yields averaging 17 centners per hectare. In 2024, farmers harvested 26.5 million tonnes at an average yield of 16 centners per hectare. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX