Asian Development Bank holds growth forecasts for Central Asia, cuts Armenia outlookThe Asian Development Bank maintained its economic growth forecasts for most Central Asian and Caucasus nations in its July outlook released Thursday, while lowering projections for Armenia and the broader region due to trade disruptions and Middle East instability.Kazakhstan’s GDP is projected to grow 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, unchanged from April, the bank said in its Asian Development Outlook update. Inflation forecasts also held steady at 10.4% for this year and 9.5% next year. The country’s economy grew 6.5% in 2025, with growth of 3.7% recorded in January-May 2026. The International Monetary Fund maintained its 4.6% growth forecast for Kazakhstan this year, while the Eurasian Development Bank expects 5.5%.The regional forecast was downgraded, with growth for the Caucasus and Central and West Asia lowered to 3.8% from 4.2% for 2026, and to 4.2% from 4.4% for 2027. The ADB cited lower growth expectations for Armenia linked to recent Russian trade restrictions, as well as reduced forecasts for Turkey due to higher fuel and fertilizer prices. Turkmenistan’s outlook was also cut as trade routes bypassing Iran raised transportation and trade costs. Prolonged energy market disruptions from the Middle East conflict had a stronger-than-expected negative impact on regional prospects, the bank said.The ADB lowered Armenia’s GDP growth forecast to 5% in 2026 from April’s 5.5%, and to 5.5% in 2027 from 5.7%. Inflation projections were raised to 4.2% this year and 3.5% next year, up from 3.8% and 3.2% respectively. Armenia’s economy grew 7.2% in 2025, and the state budget targets 5.4% growth this year.For Azerbaijan, the bank maintained its outlook at 2% growth in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, with inflation forecasts unchanged at 5.7% and 4.9%. The economy expanded 1.4% in 2025, and the government expects 1.7% growth this year.Georgia’s growth forecasts were held at 5.5% for 2026 and 5.2% for 2027. However, the inflation projection for this year was raised to 4.9% from 3.8%, while the 2027 forecast was marginally increased to 3.3% from 3.2%. Georgian authorities recently lifted their official growth target to 6.3% from 5%, and the IMF improved its forecast to 6.5%. The economy grew 7.5% in 2025.Uzbekistan’s GDP growth forecast remained at 6.7% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027, with inflation projected to slow to 6.5% this year and 5% next year. The government expects 6.6% growth in 2026. The ADB warned that rising energy prices could push natural gas subsidies above 13% of GDP, up from 10%.Tajikistan’s growth outlook was held at 7.3% for 2026 and 6.8% for 2027, though inflation forecasts were raised to 4.5% this year and 4.7% next year, up from 4% and 4.5%. The government projects growth of 8.5% in 2026, while other forecasts range from the IMF’s 6% to the Eurasian Development Bank’s 8.3%. Tajikistan’s economy grew 8.4% in 2025, with 8% growth in the first quarter of 2026. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX