Annual inflation in Kazakhstan seen falling below 10% in August – analystsKazakhstan's annual inflation likely dipped into single digits in August, dropping below 10% for the first time this year, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Inflation stood at 10.2% year-on-year in July, down from 10.3% in June, 10.4% in May, 10.6% in April, 11% in March, 11.7% in February and 12.2% in January. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 0.6% in July.Analysts' forecasts for August ranged from 9.8% to 10.1%.The most optimistic projection came from the Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, which expects 9.8%-9.9%. The Eurasian Development Bank, Olga Belenkaya of Finam, and Freedom Finance Global analyst Daniyar Orazbayev all converged on a 9.9% estimate.Anna Bodrova of Alpari and Zhannur Ashigali, director of sovereign and regional ratings at ACRA, offered a slightly more cautious forecast of 10%-10.1%.On a monthly basis, most analysts expect August inflation to come in at 0.5%-0.7%, with ACRA projecting 0.8%.Summer slowdown seen as temporaryThe anticipated easing in August is likely seasonal and temporary, analysts cautioned, with prices expected to pick up again in autumn when cheap fruits and vegetables disappear from the market.Beyond the seasonal factor, a firmer tenge, which strengthened about 2% in August, has helped keep a lid on prices, though that too reflects seasonal patterns such as the holiday period and tax season.The National Bank's tight monetary policy also continues to weigh on demand, with the base rate currently at 16.75%.Analysts also pointed to the high base effect from a year earlier: annual inflation stood at 12.2% in August 2025 and peaked at 12.9% in September 2025. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX