Government efforts to contain pricesOlga Belenkaya of Finam noted the government's targeted efforts to hold down food and service prices through interventions in specific commodity and regional markets.She also cited a government directive to review regulated tariff adjustments with an eye on their inflationary impact and to strengthen price-control measures.Strong tenge, tight policy help contain inflationAnalysts highlighted the effect of the National Bank's tight monetary stance and the tenge's appreciation.The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan noted that the tenge, currently in equilibrium, is shielding the domestic market from imported inflation by limiting the pass-through of external price pressure on imported goods.The EDB said maintaining the base rate at 16.75% is helping curb price momentum. "With annual inflation at 10.2%, the real base rate stands at about 5.9%, the National Bank assesses current monetary conditions as moderately tight," the bank said. "The tenge's 14.2% year-on-year appreciation against the dollar as of the second decade of August is also providing additional disinflationary impetus."Freedom Finance Global's Orazbayev believes paid services, which had a high base last year, could deliver the biggest positive contribution to overall disinflation. "If monthly inflation for paid services matches July's reading, annual inflation could fall to 9.7%," he said.Fruit and vegetable season weighs on pricesCheap summer vegetables have been one of the main pillars supporting disinflation, analysts said."Over the past several weeks, prices for a number of staples have been declining," the Association of Financiers said. "Just in the last week alone, onions fell 4.8%, cabbage 4.6%, potatoes 2.9%, carrots 2.4% and apples 1.1%."But that tailwind is about to fade.Finam's Belenkaya expects inflation to dip below 10% in August only temporarily. "In autumn, as temporary disinflationary factors are exhausted, annual inflation may return above the 10% threshold," she forecast.Rising transport costs add pressureExternal risks remain, particularly from elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions, which are keeping transport and logistics costs high, said Alpari's Bodrova.Non-food price dynamics are being influenced by accelerated gasoline price growth, up 15.3% year-on-year. In the paid services segment, the fastest inflation is in healthcare, transport, education, tourism and sports, according to First Vice Minister of Trade and Integration Aizhan Bizhanova.The EDB cited troubling figures: the container freight index has surged 77% since the start of the year as of Aug. 20, the FAO Food Price Index rose 0.6% month-on-month in July, and the World Bank expects fertilizer prices to climb more than 30% in 2026.No swift disinflation in sightA swift and sustained drop in inflation remains unlikely, said Alpari's Bodrova, pointing to domestic demand pressures, rising wages and business costs, as well as regulated prices and tariffs.ACRA's Ashigali said the disinflation process in Kazakhstan has slowed, with the economy characterized by strong domestic consumption and investment demand. "Prices are supported by multiple factors," she said. "Services inflation remains persistent, while food and non-food inflation are receiving new support signals."She noted that inflation in Kazakhstan is chronic and entrenched, and inflation expectations remain stubborn. Imported inflation from trading partners continues to feed through, though it has been partially contained by the tenge's recent appreciation.On the most optimistic forecasts, Ashigali concluded, inflation will not reach the central bank's 5% target until early 2028. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX